Carlos Alcaraz returns to the US Open after more than four months without a competitive singles match. His last one came in Barcelona in mid-April, where a right-wrist problem ended his run and eventually kept him out of Roland Garros, Wimbledon, Toronto and Cincinnati.
Now he is back as the defending champion.
Roman Safiullin is his first opponent on Arthur Ashe Stadium. Alcaraz’s position in Tennis Betting markets is unusual for a player with two US Open titles. The record is there. Recent singles form is not.
The Injury Interrupted a 22-3 Season
Alcaraz was 22-3 in 2026 before Barcelona.
He won Doha, then the Australian Open. Djokovic was his opponent in the Melbourne final, and the victory completed the career Grand Slam at 22.
There was no conventional warm-up tournament before Melbourne either. That comparison has come up often since Alcaraz arrived in New York, although the circumstances are not really the same. Melbourne followed a normal off-season. This time he has spent more than four months rehabilitating an injury.
His final singles event was Barcelona. He beat Otto Virtanen in the first round, then withdrew.
After that came three consecutive missed Grand Slams.
Before 2026, Alcaraz had missed only one major since his 2021 Australian Open debut.
The US Open numbers remain strong. He won here in 2022 and 2025 and is 24-3 in singles at Flushing Meadows.
Safiullin Is Not a Neutral First Round
The ranking says 98th. Their history says something else.
Safiullin beat Alcaraz in straight sets at the 2023 Paris Masters. The head-to-head is 1-1, and Safiullin also had a deep run at Wimbledon this summer.
Alcaraz at least had some match time before the singles event. He played mixed doubles with Serena Williams, beating Erin Routliffe and Lloyd Glasspool before losing in the quarter-final to Belinda Bencic and Flavio Cobolli.
A few details were noticeable:
- He wore a compression sleeve on his right arm.
- He admitted he was nervous.
- He said the injury had not changed his technique.
- His preparation since April included long practice days.
That last point matters more than the mixed doubles score.
Frances Tiafoe said somebody still has to beat Alcaraz over five sets, even if he is below his best. Fair enough. But Alcaraz has not played a best-of-five match for months either.
Sinner’s Absence Changes the Draw
Jannik Sinner is out with a knee injury.
That leaves Alexander Zverev as the top seed after his Roland Garros title. Alcaraz is seeded second. Djokovic remains in the draw and is still chasing a 25th major.
A semi-final between Alcaraz and Djokovic is possible if both get through their halves.
For Alcaraz, getting that far is less about the name on the other side of the net than the amount of tennis required to reach it. Four or five matches would provide a much clearer picture of the wrist than anything seen in practice.
The betting market could move quickly during the opening rounds. Two short wins would probably cut his title price. A long opener, visible discomfort or a retirement would do the opposite and move attention toward Zverev, Djokovic and the rest of the field.
Match markets may react first. Serve speed, movement late in sets and the amount of time spent on court are more useful here than seed number alone.
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The First Week Should Answer Most of It
Another US Open title would give Alcaraz seven majors at 23.
That sounds like the obvious headline. Right now, though, the more immediate issue is simpler.
He was 22-3 in 2026 before the injury. He is 24-3 at the US Open. He has also gone more than four months without competitive singles.
If Safiullin stretches the opener past three sets, the first real answer may arrive very quickly.