How our predictions are built
No tipster hunches and no paid picks – a model that treats every match the same way. Here is what happens between the final whistle of one round and the tips you read the next morning.
Step one: a year of results, re-read every night
After the day's games finish, Betarazi goes back through roughly twelve months of scores for every club we cover. From them we build two numbers per team: how many goals it scores compared with an ordinary side in the same league, and how many it lets in. Recent games weigh more – a result from about fourteen weeks back carries half the weight of last weekend's. Clubs with very few games start close to the league average and move away from it only as their results build up.
Step two: from ratings to expected goals
For each fixture we multiply the home side's attack by the visitors' defence and by how many goals home teams usually score in that competition; the same sum the other way round gives the away side. That rating estimate makes up 40% of our goal forecast. A statistics feed supplies another 30%, and the remaining 30% comes from the bookmakers' over/under line – our way of catching late team news and line-ups the ratings cannot see.
Step three: one scoreline grid, every market
Those two expected-goal figures produce a probability for every score from 0–0 up to 7–7. Real football throws up more 0–0s and 1–1s than pure maths predicts, so we nudge those draws up a little. Adding the right squares of the grid gives the chance for each market we publish – 1X2, double chance, draw no bet, Asian handicap, overs and unders from 0.5 to 4.5, GG/NG, first team to score, correct score, half-time and HT/FT. The match-result figure is then mixed 55% our numbers, 45% the market price.
Step four: choosing the one tip
Every match gets a single headline tip. It must be probable and it must pay something: the strongest chance on offer at odds of at least 1.15, with a small boost when the bookmaker price beats our fair odds. If two markets are almost tied, Betarazi deliberately prefers the steadier one – double chance, over 1.5 or under 3.5 goals – because a slightly lower price that lands more often keeps a bankroll alive.
Step five: graded where everyone can see
A tip is frozen at kick-off and settled on the 90-minute score including added time, exactly as a bookmaker settles. Extra time and penalties are ignored; postponed or abandoned games are void. Whole-number Asian handicap lines can end as a refund. First team to score is graded only when the scores show who scored first. Wins and losses both stay in the results archive for good.
What the percentage tells you
- 75% or more – our strongest calls. About one in four will still lose.
- 65–74% – reliable picks, the ones our slips are built from.
- 55–64% – a clear lean, best played as a single.
- Under 55% – nearly a coin flip; we show it, we rarely tip it.
Fair odds and value, in one line
Divide 100 by our percentage: 64% → 1.56. If your bookmaker offers 1.75 for that pick, you are being paid more than the risk – that is value. The value spots page lists prices at least 6% above our fair odds. They lose more often than headline tips; the case for them is the long-run return.
The limits of any model
Results drive our ratings, so a new manager, an injury crisis or a big signing shows up only as the scores change – the market price fills part of that gap. Dead-rubber motivation, heavy rain and surprise line-ups can still turn a game. That is why every Betarazi pick shows a percentage, never a guarantee.
Keep it fun
Decide your budget before the first bet, keep stakes level and never chase a loss. Betarazi is for over-18s only; free and confidential support is listed on our responsible gambling page.