Home Win Tips

Home win treble for Wednesday 11 November: pick by pick

Cieza vs Valencia II (Segunda División RFEF Group 3, 20:30 WAT): Cieza to win at 2.10, a 52% chance. Cieza come out on top in 52% of our simulated games; the draw takes 24%. Our ratings put 1.7 expected goals on Cieza and 0.9 from Valencia II.

Avro vs Whitby Town (Non League Premier Northern, 20:45 WAT): Avro to win at 1.35, a 71% chance. Avro come out on top in 71% of our simulated games; the draw takes 16%. Our ratings put 3.0 expected goals on Avro and 1.3 from Whitby Town.

Londrina vs Nautico Recife (Serie B, 23:00 WAT): Londrina to win at 1.74, a 55% chance. Londrina come out on top in 55% of our simulated games; the draw takes 23%. Our ratings put 1.7 expected goals on Londrina and 1.0 from Nautico Recife.

Combined, the 3 legs pay 4.93, and our chance of all of them landing is 20%. Put 1,000 on it and the return is 4,930.

How the home win treble works

The home win treble backs three hosts our ratings clearly expect to win. Home advantage is the starting point, but every pick also needs a real gap in team strength.

We only use home sides comfortably above a 50% chance whose price still offers a fair return, so the treble pays something worthwhile.

Playing it well

• Rotated line-ups in busy weeks can trip up a home favourite.
• On uncertain days, the double chance treble is the lower-risk option.
• Home and away records for this season are on every team page.

Betarazi slips only use senior matches from 11:00 WAT onwards. Once the first game kicks off the slip is locked, and it is graded on the score after 90 minutes. These are estimates, not promises – please only bet what you can afford to lose (18+).