Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.15 – our chance 57% vs 47% implied by the price (edge +22%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultAS Roma to win ✗38% · @3.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✗73% · @1.38
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @2.15
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗76% · @1.13
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.42
Napoli vs AS Roma: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
20:45 WAT, Sunday 15 February: Napoli v AS Roma in the Serie A, played at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona. In the table, Napoli are 10th, upper half, on 15 points after 11 matches; AS Roma are 3rd (among the top four) with 27. There are 12 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Napoli 1.3 xG, AS Roma 1.5 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 44%, GG 57%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Napoli 35%, draw 27%, AS Roma 38%.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 2.15.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.15 – the bookmaker implies 47%, our ratings say 57%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (68%, odds 1.60 – longer than our fair 1.47, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Napoli 1–1 AS Roma. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Napoli35%fair 2.84 · @2.64
Draw27%fair 3.75 · @2.78
AS Roma38%fair 2.63 · @3.05
2.83Expected goals
1.34Napoli xG
1.48AS Roma xG
57%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–19%
1–29%
1–08%
2–18%
0–27%
From our goals model: Napoli 1.3 – 1.5 AS Roma expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
AS Roma to win✗
38%
2.63
3.05 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
73%
1.36
1.38
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.77
2.15 ▲
Draw no bet
AS Roma (draw no bet)
52%
1.93
–
Asian handicap
Napoli +1 (Asian handicap)✓
75%
1.33
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
1.60 ▲
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.78
1.42
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
76%
1.31
1.13
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
87%
1.14
1.04
First team to score
AS Roma to score first
49%
2.02
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
41%
2.43
–
Half-time / full-time
HT AS Roma / FT AS Roma✗
24%
4.17
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.42
–
Recent results
Napoli
No recent results on record.
AS Roma
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Napoli and AS Roma.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.60.
Who will win Napoli vs AS Roma?
On our numbers Napoli have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 27% and AS Roma 38%.
How many goals will there be in Napoli vs AS Roma?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Napoli vs AS Roma?
Our predicted score is Napoli 1–1 AS Roma, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Napoli vs AS Roma?
Napoli vs AS Roma (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 15 February 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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