Value bet: Lazio to win @ 2.18 – our chance 55% vs 46% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultLazio to win ✓55% · @2.18
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @1.90
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · @1.40
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓10% · fair 10.05
Lazio vs Sassuolo: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
20:45 WAT, Monday 9 March: Lazio v Sassuolo in the Serie A, played at Stadio Olimpico. In the table, Lazio are 1st, leading the league, on 29 points after 11 matches; Sassuolo are 17th (lower half) with 8. There are 21 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Sassuolo, last 3: WWW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Atalanta, at home. Scoring is no problem – 2.3 a game lately.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Lazio 2.0 xG, Sassuolo 1.0 xG – a total near 3.1. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 51% and GG at 53%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Lazio 55%, draw 22%, Sassuolo 24%.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 1.90.
Price worth noting: Lazio to win @2.18 – the bookmaker implies 46%, our ratings say 55%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (74%, odds 1.40 – longer than our fair 1.35, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Lazio 2–1 Sassuolo. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Lazio55%fair 1.83 · @2.18
Draw22%fair 4.57 · @3.20
Sassuolo24%fair 4.24 · @3.40
3.07Expected goals
2.03Lazio xG
1.04Sassuolo xG
53%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–110%
1–110%
2–010%
1–09%
3–17%
3–06%
From our goals model: Lazio 2.0 – 1.0 Sassuolo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lazio to win✓
55%
1.83
2.18 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.89
1.90
Draw no bet
Lazio (draw no bet)✓
70%
1.43
–
Asian handicap
Lazio -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
60%
1.66
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.94
2.15 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
1.07
First team to score
Lazio to score first
63%
1.59
–
Half-time result
Lazio ahead at half-time✗
44%
2.26
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lazio / FT Lazio✗
38%
2.61
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
10%
10.05
–
Recent results
Lazio – last 2
DL
4 Mar
vs Atalanta
2–2
D
1 Mar
@ Torino
0–2
L
1.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Sassuolo – last 3
WWW
1 Mar
vs Atalanta
2–1
W
20 Feb
vs Verona
3–0
W
15 Feb
@ Udinese
2–1
W
2.3Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lazio and Sassuolo.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Lazio vs Sassuolo?
On our numbers Lazio have a 55% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Sassuolo 24%.
How many goals will there be in Lazio vs Sassuolo?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lazio vs Sassuolo?
Our predicted score is Lazio 2–1 Sassuolo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Lazio vs Sassuolo?
Lazio vs Sassuolo (Serie A) kicks off on Monday 9 March 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Olimpico.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
