Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.00 – our chance 55% vs 50% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultNapoli to win ✗58% · @1.52
Double chanceNapoli or draw ✗80% · @1.12
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @2.00
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.26
Napoli vs Bologna: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Bologna travel to face Napoli on Monday 11 May in the Serie A, with Stadio Diego Armando Maradona the venue – the ball rolls at 19:45 WAT. In the table, Napoli are 10th, upper half, on 15 points after 11 matches; Bologna are 8th (upper half) with 17. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Napoli, last 5: WWWWL Their latest outing: 4–0 win over Cremonese, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Bologna, last 5: DLLWL Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Cagliari, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 2.2 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Napoli, collecting 2.2 points per game to 0.8 for Bologna.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Napoli 1.7 xG, Bologna 1.0 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 50%, GG 55%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Napoli 58%, draw 22%, Bologna 20%.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 2.00.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.00 – the bookmaker implies 50%, our ratings say 55%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (74%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: Napoli 1–1 Bologna. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Napoli58%fair 1.73 · @1.52
Draw22%fair 4.50 · @4.00
Bologna20%fair 4.96 · @6.00
2.72Expected goals
1.72Napoli xG
1.00Bologna xG
55%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
1–011%
2–110%
2–010%
0–17%
0–07%
From our goals model: Napoli 1.7 – 1.0 Bologna expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Napoli to win✗
58%
1.73
1.52
Double chance
Napoli or draw✗
80%
1.25
1.12
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.81
2.00 ▲
Draw no bet
Napoli (draw no bet)✗
74%
1.35
–
Asian handicap
Bologna +1 (Asian handicap)✓
60%
1.66
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.34
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
50%
1.99
1.90
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
71%
1.41
1.33
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
85%
1.17
1.11
First team to score
Napoli to score first
59%
1.69
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.43
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Napoli / FT Napoli✗
33%
2.99
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.26
–
Recent results
Napoli – last 6
WWWWLD
24 Apr
vs Cremonese
4–0
W
6 Apr
vs AC Milan
1–0
W
20 Mar
@ Cagliari
1–0
W
6 Mar
vs Torino
2–1
W
22 Feb
@ Atalanta
1–2
L
15 Feb
vs AS Roma
2–2
D
1.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Bologna – last 6
DLLWLD
3 May
vs Cagliari
0–0
D
16 Apr
@ Aston Villa
0–4
L
9 Apr
vs Aston Villa
1–3
L
5 Apr
@ Cremonese
2–1
W
22 Mar
vs Lazio
0–2
L
19 Mar
@ AS Roma
3–3
D
1.0Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Napoli and Bologna.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Napoli vs Bologna?
On our numbers Napoli have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Bologna 20%.
How many goals will there be in Napoli vs Bologna?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Napoli vs Bologna?
Our predicted score is Napoli 1–1 Bologna, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Napoli vs Bologna?
Napoli vs Bologna (Serie A) kicks off on Monday 11 May 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
