Fiorentina vs Atalanta: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Atalanta travel to face Fiorentina on Friday 22 May in the Serie A, with Stadio Artemio Franchi the venue – the ball rolls at 19:45 WAT. In the table, Fiorentina are 15th, lower half, on 9 points after 11 matches; Atalanta are 12th (lower half) with 14.
Current form
Fiorentina, last 5: WDLDD Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Juventus, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Atalanta, last 5: LLWWL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Bologna, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 2.3 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Fiorentina, collecting 1.5 points per game to 1.0 for Atalanta.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Fiorentina 1.5 xG, Atalanta 1.3 xG – a total near 2.9. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 55%, GG 64%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Fiorentina 40%, draw 24%, Atalanta 36%.
GG/NG: GG (64%) at 1.53.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (78%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Fiorentina 1–1 Atalanta. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Fiorentina40%fair 2.51 · @2.56
Draw24%fair 4.15 · @3.45
Atalanta36%fair 2.77 · @2.56
2.87Expected goals
1.52Fiorentina xG
1.35Atalanta xG
64%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
2–19%
1–09%
1–28%
0–18%
2–07%
From our goals model: Fiorentina 1.5 – 1.3 Atalanta expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Fiorentina to win✗
40%
2.51
2.56
Double chance
Either team to win✗
76%
1.32
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
64%
1.57
1.53
Draw no bet
Fiorentina (draw no bet)
52%
1.91
–
Asian handicap
Atalanta +1 (Asian handicap)✓
74%
1.35
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
78%
1.29
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.80
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
1.45
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
1.18
First team to score
Fiorentina to score first✓
50%
2.00
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.46
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Fiorentina / FT Fiorentina✗
25%
4.08
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.30
–
Recent results
Fiorentina – last 6
WDLDDW
17 May
@ Juventus
2–0
W
10 May
vs Genoa
0–0
D
4 May
@ AS Roma
0–4
L
26 Apr
vs Sassuolo
0–0
D
20 Apr
@ Lecce
1–1
D
16 Apr
vs Crystal Palace
2–1
W
0.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Atalanta – last 6
LLWWLL
17 May
vs Bologna
0–1
L
27 Apr
@ Cagliari
2–3
L
6 Apr
@ Lecce
3–0
W
22 Mar
vs Hellas Verona
1–0
W
18 Mar
@ Bayern München
1–4
L
10 Mar
vs Bayern München
1–6
L
1.3Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Fiorentina and Atalanta.
What is the prediction for Fiorentina vs Atalanta?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Fiorentina vs Atalanta?
On our numbers Fiorentina have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Atalanta 36%.
How many goals will there be in Fiorentina vs Atalanta?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Fiorentina vs Atalanta?
Our predicted score is Fiorentina 1–1 Atalanta, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Fiorentina vs Atalanta?
Fiorentina vs Atalanta (Serie A) kicks off on Friday 22 May 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
