Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.05 – our chance 54% vs 49% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultChelsea to win ✗77% · @1.23
Double chanceChelsea or draw ✓91% · @1.05
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @2.05
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓85% · @1.14
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.16
Chelsea vs Burnley: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Chelsea welcome Burnley to Stamford Bridge for a Premier League fixture on Saturday 21 February (16:00 WAT).
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Chelsea 2.7 xG, Burnley 0.9 xG – a total near 3.6. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 67% and GG at 54%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Chelsea 77%, draw 14%, Burnley 9%.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 2.05.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.05 – the bookmaker implies 49%, our ratings say 54%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Chelsea to win (77%, odds 1.23). Most likely score in line with that pick: Chelsea 2–0 Burnley. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Chelsea77%fair 1.30 · @1.23
Draw14%fair 7.22 · @7.00
Burnley9%fair 10.66 · @11.00
3.59Expected goals
2.70Chelsea xG
0.89Burnley xG
54%Both score
67%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–010%
3–09%
2–19%
3–18%
1–07%
1–17%
From our goals model: Chelsea 2.7 – 0.9 Burnley expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Chelsea to win✗
77%
1.30
1.23
Double chance
Chelsea or draw✓
91%
1.10
1.05
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.85
2.05 ▲
Draw no bet
Chelsea (draw no bet)
89%
1.12
–
Asian handicap
Chelsea -1 (Asian handicap)✗
69%
1.45
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
1.14
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
67%
1.49
1.44
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
54%
1.86
1.65
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.28
First team to score
Chelsea to score first✓
73%
1.37
–
Half-time result
Chelsea ahead at half-time✓
56%
1.78
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Chelsea / FT Chelsea✗
52%
1.92
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.16
–
Recent results
Chelsea – last 1
W
13 Feb
@ Hull City
4–0
W
4.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Burnley
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Chelsea and Burnley.
Our pick is Chelsea to win with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.23.
Who will win Chelsea vs Burnley?
On our numbers Chelsea have a 77% chance of winning, the draw 14% and Burnley 9%.
How many goals will there be in Chelsea vs Burnley?
We expect about 3.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 67% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Chelsea vs Burnley?
Our predicted score is Chelsea 2–0 Burnley, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.6 goals in total.
When is Chelsea vs Burnley?
Chelsea vs Burnley (Premier League) kicks off on Saturday 21 February 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Stamford Bridge.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
West Ham0