Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Brighton to win @ 2.38 – our chance 51% vs 42% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultBrighton to win ✓51% · @2.38
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗64% · @1.53
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.12
Brighton vs Chelsea: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Brighton welcome Chelsea to Amex Stadium for a Premier League fixture on Tuesday 21 April (20:00 WAT). In the table, Brighton are 2nd, among the top four, on 22 points after 10 matches; Chelsea are 5th (upper half) with 16.
Current form
Brighton, last 3: LWW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Arsenal, at home. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.7 conceded per game.
Chelsea, last 5: LLWLD Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to Paris Saint Germain, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 2 lost from 4. Scoring is no problem – 2.0 a game lately.
Momentum favours Brighton, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.2 for Chelsea.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Brighton 1.9 xG, Chelsea 1.1 xG – a total near 3.0. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 58% and GG at 64%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Brighton 51%, draw 22%, Chelsea 28%.
GG/NG: GG (64%) at 1.53.
Price worth noting: Brighton to win @2.38 – the bookmaker implies 42%, our ratings say 51%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (79%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Brighton 1–1 Chelsea. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Brighton51%fair 1.98 · @2.38
Draw22%fair 4.59 · @3.65
Chelsea28%fair 3.62 · @2.66
3.02Expected goals
1.91Brighton xG
1.11Chelsea xG
64%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–110%
2–110%
1–09%
2–09%
3–16%
1–26%
From our goals model: Brighton 1.9 – 1.1 Chelsea expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Brighton to win✓
51%
1.98
2.38 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
64%
1.57
1.53
Draw no bet
Brighton (draw no bet)✓
65%
1.55
–
Asian handicap
Chelsea +1.5 (Asian handicap)✗
67%
1.48
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.26
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.72
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
64%
1.57
1.50
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
1.20
First team to score
Brighton to score first✓
60%
1.66
–
Half-time result
Brighton ahead at half-time✓
41%
2.42
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Brighton / FT Brighton✓
35%
2.85
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.12
–
Recent results
Brighton – last 3
LWW
4 Mar
vs Arsenal
0–1
L
1 Mar
vs Nottingham Forest
2–1
W
21 Feb
@ Brentford
2–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Chelsea – last 6
LLWLDW
17 Mar
vs Paris Saint Germain
0–3
L
11 Mar
@ Paris Saint Germain
2–5
L
4 Mar
@ Aston Villa
4–1
W
1 Mar
@ Arsenal
1–2
L
21 Feb
vs Burnley
1–1
D
13 Feb
@ Hull City
4–0
W
2.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Brighton and Chelsea.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Brighton vs Chelsea?
On our numbers Brighton have a 51% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Chelsea 28%.
How many goals will there be in Brighton vs Chelsea?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Brighton vs Chelsea?
Our predicted score is Brighton 1–1 Chelsea, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Brighton vs Chelsea?
Brighton vs Chelsea (Premier League) kicks off on Tuesday 21 April 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Amex Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
