Morton vs Dunfermline: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Tuesday 17 February the Championship brings Morton against Dunfermline at Cappielow Park. Kick-off: 20:45 WAT. In the table, Morton are 9th, in the drop zone, on 13 points after 13 matches; Dunfermline are 3rd (among the top four) with 25. There are 12 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Morton 1.0 xG, Dunfermline 1.4 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 56%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Morton 30%, draw 27%, Dunfermline 43%.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.85.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (78%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Morton 0–1 Dunfermline. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Morton30%fair 3.32 · @2.84
Draw27%fair 3.73 · @3.05
Dunfermline43%fair 2.32 · @2.45
2.38Expected goals
1.00Morton xG
1.39Dunfermline xG
56%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–113%
1–113%
0–09%
1–09%
0–29%
1–29%
From our goals model: Morton 1.0 – 1.4 Dunfermline expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Morton
Dunfermline
Attack vs Championship average
+19%
+0%
Goals conceded vs average
+43%
-39%
Our expected goals here
0.93
1.52
Our own ratings from every Championship result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Dunfermline to win✗
43%
2.32
2.45 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
73%
1.37
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.80
1.85
Draw no bet
Dunfermline (draw no bet)✗
59%
1.70
–
Asian handicap
Morton +1 (Asian handicap)✓
71%
1.41
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
67%
1.48
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.74
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
1.20
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
–
First team to score
Dunfermline to score first✗
53%
1.89
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Dunfermline / FT Dunfermline✗
27%
3.72
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.31
–
Recent results
Morton
No recent results on record.
Dunfermline
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Morton and Dunfermline.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Morton vs Dunfermline?
On our numbers Morton have a 30% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Dunfermline 43%.
How many goals will there be in Morton vs Dunfermline?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Morton vs Dunfermline?
Our predicted score is Morton 0–1 Dunfermline, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Morton vs Dunfermline?
Morton vs Dunfermline (Championship) kicks off on Tuesday 17 February 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at Cappielow Park.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
