Value bet: Morton to win @ 3.05 – our chance 40% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +22%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultMorton to win ✓40% · @3.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓9% · fair 11.01
Morton vs Arbroath: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Morton welcome Arbroath to Cappielow Park for a Championship fixture on Saturday 28 March (14:00 WAT). In the table, Morton are 9th, in the drop zone, on 13 points after 13 matches; Arbroath are 8th (in the drop zone) with 14. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Morton, last 3: LLW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Partick, at home. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Morton 1.5 xG, Arbroath 1.2 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 47%, GG 56%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Morton 40%, draw 25%, Arbroath 35%.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.83.
Price worth noting: Morton to win @3.05 – the bookmaker implies 33%, our ratings say 40%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (71%, odds 1.38). Most likely score in line with that pick: Morton 1–1 Arbroath. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Morton40%fair 2.49 · @3.05
Draw25%fair 4.02 · @3.15
Arbroath35%fair 2.86 · @2.25
2.70Expected goals
1.50Morton xG
1.20Arbroath xG
56%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–010%
2–19%
0–18%
2–08%
1–27%
From our goals model: Morton 1.5 – 1.2 Arbroath expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Morton
Arbroath
Attack vs Championship average
+19%
-18%
Goals conceded vs average
+43%
+28%
Our expected goals here
1.93
1.24
Our own ratings from every Championship result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Morton to win✓
40%
2.49
3.05 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.33
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
56%
1.80
1.83
Draw no bet
Morton (draw no bet)✓
53%
1.87
–
Asian handicap
Arbroath +1 (Asian handicap)
72%
1.39
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
53%
1.89
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
86%
1.16
–
First team to score
Morton to score first
52%
1.93
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.38
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Morton / FT Morton✓
26%
3.81
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
9%
11.01
–
Recent results
Morton – last 3
LLW
13 Mar
vs Partick
1–2
L
21 Feb
@ Queen's Park
2–3
L
17 Feb
vs Dunfermline
2–0
W
1.7Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Arbroath – last 2
DW
3 Mar
vs Ayr Utd
1–1
D
21 Feb
vs Dunfermline
4–2
W
2.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
100%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Morton and Arbroath.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.38.
Who will win Morton vs Arbroath?
On our numbers Morton have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Arbroath 35%.
How many goals will there be in Morton vs Arbroath?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Morton vs Arbroath?
Our predicted score is Morton 1–1 Arbroath, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Morton vs Arbroath?
Morton vs Arbroath (Championship) kicks off on Saturday 28 March 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Cappielow Park.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
ST Johnstone1