Value bet: HNK Rijeka to win @ 2.30 – our chance 47% vs 43% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultHNK Rijeka to win ✗47% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗75% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 10.67
HNK Gorica vs HNK Rijeka: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 22 March the HNL brings HNK Gorica against HNK Rijeka at Gradski stadion Velika Gorica. Kick-off: 17:45 WAT. In the table, HNK Gorica are 10th, in the drop zone, on 7 points after 13 matches; HNK Rijeka are 6th (lower half) with 18.
Current form
HNK Gorica, last 4: WLWD Their latest outing: 3–1 win over NK Varazdin, away. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
HNK Rijeka, last 5: DLLWW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Strasbourg, away. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give HNK Gorica 1.0 xG, HNK Rijeka 1.6 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 55%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – HNK Gorica 28%, draw 26%, HNK Rijeka 47%.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.80.
Price worth noting: HNK Rijeka to win @2.30 – the bookmaker implies 43%, our ratings say 47%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (75%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: HNK Gorica 1–1 HNK Rijeka. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
HNK Gorica28%fair 3.63 · @3.00
Draw26%fair 3.89 · @3.10
HNK Rijeka47%fair 2.14 · @2.30
2.60Expected goals
1.05HNK Gorica xG
1.55HNK Rijeka xG
55%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–112%
1–29%
0–29%
1–08%
0–07%
From our goals model: HNK Gorica 1.0 – 1.6 HNK Rijeka expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
HNK Rijeka to win✗
47%
2.14
2.30 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.35
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.82
1.80
Draw no bet
HNK Rijeka (draw no bet)✗
63%
1.59
–
Asian handicap
HNK Gorica +1 (Asian handicap)✓
67%
1.49
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.42
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.84
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
75%
1.33
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
88%
1.14
–
First team to score
HNK Rijeka to score first✗
55%
1.81
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.34
–
Half-time / full-time
HT HNK Rijeka / FT HNK Rijeka✗
29%
3.40
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
10.67
–
Recent results
HNK Gorica – last 4
WLWD
4 Mar
@ NK Varazdin
3–1
W
1 Mar
@ Dinamo Zagreb
2–4
L
21 Feb
@ Istra 1961
2–0
W
15 Feb
vs Vukovar
0–0
D
1.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
HNK Rijeka – last 6
DLLWWW
19 Mar
@ Strasbourg
1–1
D
15 Mar
vs Istra 1961
0–2
L
12 Mar
vs Strasbourg
1–2
L
8 Mar
@ Vukovar
1–0
W
1 Mar
vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
2–0
W
26 Feb
vs Omonia Nicosia
3–1
W
1.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between HNK Gorica and HNK Rijeka.
What is the prediction for HNK Gorica vs HNK Rijeka?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win HNK Gorica vs HNK Rijeka?
On our numbers HNK Gorica have a 28% chance of winning, the draw 26% and HNK Rijeka 47%.
How many goals will there be in HNK Gorica vs HNK Rijeka?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for HNK Gorica vs HNK Rijeka?
Our predicted score is HNK Gorica 1–1 HNK Rijeka, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is HNK Gorica vs HNK Rijeka?
HNK Gorica vs HNK Rijeka (HNL) kicks off on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 17:45 (West Africa Time) at Gradski stadion Velika Gorica.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
