Value bet: Aluminij to win @ 2.52 – our chance 44% vs 40% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultAluminij to win ✓44% · @2.52
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.55
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓9% · fair 10.53
Aluminij vs Mura: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Aluminij welcome Mura to Sportni park Aluminij for a 1. SNL fixture on Thursday 16 April (16:00 WAT). In the table, Aluminij are 7th, lower half, on 17 points after 15 matches; Mura are 9th (in the drop zone) with 14. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Aluminij, last 5: LDLWL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Radomlje, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Aluminij 1.6 xG, Mura 1.1 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 52%, GG 60%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Aluminij 44%, draw 25%, Mura 31%.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.55.
Price worth noting: Aluminij to win @2.52 – the bookmaker implies 40%, our ratings say 44%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (75%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Aluminij 1–1 Mura. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Aluminij44%fair 2.28 · @2.52
Draw25%fair 4.02 · @3.35
Mura31%fair 3.19 · @2.52
2.72Expected goals
1.61Aluminij xG
1.10Mura xG
60%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
2–09%
0–17%
0–07%
From our goals model: Aluminij 1.6 – 1.1 Mura expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Aluminij to win✓
44%
2.28
2.52 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.33
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
60%
1.66
1.55
Draw no bet
Aluminij (draw no bet)✓
58%
1.71
–
Asian handicap
Mura +1 (Asian handicap)
66%
1.51
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.92
1.75
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.40
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
86%
1.16
–
First team to score
Aluminij to score first✓
56%
1.80
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.40
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Aluminij / FT Aluminij✓
30%
3.36
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
9%
10.53
–
Recent results
Aluminij – last 6
LDLWLW
3 Apr
vs Radomlje
1–2
L
20 Mar
vs Maribor
1–1
D
15 Mar
@ Primorje
0–2
L
11 Mar
@ Fužinar
4–0
W
8 Mar
vs Koper
2–4
L
5 Mar
vs Celje
2–1
W
1.7Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Mura – last 1
L
1 Mar
@ Koper
0–3
L
0.0Scored / game
3.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Aluminij and Mura.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Aluminij vs Mura?
On our numbers Aluminij have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Mura 31%.
How many goals will there be in Aluminij vs Mura?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Aluminij vs Mura?
Our predicted score is Aluminij 1–1 Mura, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Aluminij vs Mura?
Aluminij vs Mura (1. SNL) kicks off on Thursday 16 April 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Sportni park Aluminij.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
