Value bet: Linfield to win @ 2.75 – our chance 39% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultLinfield to win ✗39% · @2.75
Double chanceEither team to win ✗73% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 11.81
Larne vs Linfield: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
20:45 WAT, Tuesday 24 February: Larne v Linfield in the Premiership, played at Inver Park. In the table, Larne are 3rd, among the top four, on 26 points after 13 matches; Linfield are 1st (leading the league) with 36.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Larne 1.1 xG, Linfield 1.3 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 44%, GG 57%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Larne 34%, draw 27%, Linfield 39%.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.83.
Price worth noting: Linfield to win @2.75 – the bookmaker implies 36%, our ratings say 39%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (76%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Larne 1–1 Linfield. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Larne34%fair 2.92 · @2.45
Draw27%fair 3.73 · @3.10
Linfield39%fair 2.56 · @2.75
2.46Expected goals
1.15Larne xG
1.32Linfield xG
57%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–111%
1–010%
0–09%
1–28%
0–27%
From our goals model: Larne 1.1 – 1.3 Linfield expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Larne
Linfield
Attack vs Premiership average
+21%
+13%
Goals conceded vs average
-12%
-36%
Our expected goals here
1.11
1.40
Our own ratings from every Premiership result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Linfield to win✗
39%
2.56
2.75 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
73%
1.37
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.76
1.83
Draw no bet
Linfield (draw no bet)
53%
1.88
–
Asian handicap
Larne +1 (Asian handicap)✓
76%
1.31
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.79
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
90%
1.12
–
First team to score
Linfield to score first✗
49%
2.04
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.25
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Linfield / FT Linfield✗
23%
4.26
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
11.81
–
Recent results
Larne – last 1
L
20 Feb
vs Carrick Rangers
2–3
L
2.0Scored / game
3.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Linfield – last 1
W
17 Feb
@ Dungannon Swifts
4–1
W
4.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Larne and Linfield.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Larne vs Linfield?
On our numbers Larne have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Linfield 39%.
How many goals will there be in Larne vs Linfield?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Larne vs Linfield?
Our predicted score is Larne 1–1 Linfield, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Larne vs Linfield?
Larne vs Linfield (Premiership) kicks off on Tuesday 24 February 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at Inver Park.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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