Birmingham vs Middlesbrough: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
21:00 WAT, Monday 2 March: Birmingham v Middlesbrough in the Championship, played at St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park. In the table, Birmingham are 1st, leading the league, on 29 points after 15 matches; Middlesbrough are 2nd (among the top four) with 29. They are level on points, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Middlesbrough, last 3: DDL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Leicester, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Birmingham 1.5 xG, Middlesbrough 1.2 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 52%, GG 60%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Birmingham 41%, draw 24%, Middlesbrough 34%.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.65.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (75%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Birmingham 1–1 Middlesbrough. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Birmingham41%fair 2.42 · @2.56
Draw24%fair 4.09 · @3.45
Middlesbrough34%fair 2.92 · @2.56
2.74Expected goals
1.51Birmingham xG
1.23Middlesbrough xG
60%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–010%
2–19%
0–18%
1–27%
2–07%
From our goals model: Birmingham 1.5 – 1.2 Middlesbrough expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Birmingham to win✗
41%
2.42
2.56 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
60%
1.66
1.65
Draw no bet
Birmingham (draw no bet)✗
55%
1.83
–
Asian handicap
Middlesbrough +1 (Asian handicap)✓
72%
1.38
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.94
1.83
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
70%
1.43
1.36
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
1.12
First team to score
Birmingham to score first✗
52%
1.94
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.40
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Birmingham / FT Birmingham✗
26%
3.86
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.04
–
Recent results
Birmingham – last 2
LW
25 Feb
@ Millwall
0–3
L
21 Feb
@ Norwich
2–1
W
1.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Middlesbrough – last 3
DDL
24 Feb
vs Leicester
1–1
D
21 Feb
vs Oxford United
0–0
D
16 Feb
@ Coventry
1–3
L
0.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Birmingham and Middlesbrough.
What is the prediction for Birmingham vs Middlesbrough?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Birmingham vs Middlesbrough?
On our numbers Birmingham have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Middlesbrough 34%.
How many goals will there be in Birmingham vs Middlesbrough?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Birmingham vs Middlesbrough?
Our predicted score is Birmingham 1–1 Middlesbrough, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Birmingham vs Middlesbrough?
Birmingham vs Middlesbrough (Championship) kicks off on Monday 2 March 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time) at St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
