Portsmouth vs Derby: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
21:00 WAT, Monday 16 March: Portsmouth v Derby in the Championship, played at Fratton Park. In the table, Portsmouth are 11th, upper half, on 22 points after 15 matches; Derby are 23rd (in the drop zone) with 10. There are 12 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Portsmouth, last 5: LDLLW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Swansea, at home. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Derby, last 4: LWLL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Millwall, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Portsmouth 1.5 xG, Derby 1.0 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 45%, GG 51%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Portsmouth 47%, draw 26%, Derby 28%.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 1.90.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (76%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Portsmouth 1–0 Derby. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Portsmouth47%fair 2.15 · @2.18
Draw26%fair 3.86 · @3.15
Derby28%fair 3.62 · @3.40
2.53Expected goals
1.53Portsmouth xG
0.99Derby xG
51%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–012%
1–112%
2–09%
2–19%
0–08%
0–18%
From our goals model: Portsmouth 1.5 – 1.0 Derby expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Portsmouth to win✗
47%
2.15
2.18
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.35
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.98
1.90
Draw no bet
Portsmouth (draw no bet)✗
63%
1.59
–
Asian handicap
Derby +1 (Asian handicap)✓
66%
1.51
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
70%
1.44
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.80
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
88%
1.13
1.07
First team to score
Portsmouth to score first✗
56%
1.79
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.31
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Portsmouth / FT Portsmouth✗
30%
3.35
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.72
–
Recent results
Portsmouth – last 6
LDLLWW
10 Mar
vs Swansea
1–2
L
7 Mar
@ Blackburn
1–1
D
28 Feb
vs Hull City
0–1
L
24 Feb
@ Wrexham
1–2
L
21 Feb
@ Millwall
3–1
W
17 Feb
@ Charlton
3–1
W
1.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Derby – last 4
LWLL
10 Mar
@ Millwall
0–1
L
28 Feb
vs Blackburn
3–1
W
24 Feb
@ Hull City
2–4
L
21 Feb
@ Watford
0–2
L
1.3Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Portsmouth and Derby.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Portsmouth vs Derby?
On our numbers Portsmouth have a 47% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Derby 28%.
How many goals will there be in Portsmouth vs Derby?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Portsmouth vs Derby?
Our predicted score is Portsmouth 1–0 Derby, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Portsmouth vs Derby?
Portsmouth vs Derby (Championship) kicks off on Monday 16 March 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time) at Fratton Park.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
