Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.45 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.45Odds
Picks by market
ResultMarseille to win ✓68% · @1.24
Double chanceMarseille or draw ✓87% · @1.05
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @1.83
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓84% · @1.14
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.21
Marseille vs Metz: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Metz travel to face Marseille on Friday 10 April in the Ligue 1, with Orange Vélodrome the venue – the ball rolls at 20:05 WAT.
Current form
Marseille, last 4: LLWL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Monaco, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Metz, last 5: DDLLL Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Nantes, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Marseille 2.2 xG, Metz 1.1 xG – a total near 3.3. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 65% and GG at 51%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Marseille 68%, draw 19%, Metz 13%.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 1.83.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 2.5 goals (65%, odds 1.45). Most likely score in line with that pick: Marseille 2–1 Metz. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Marseille68%fair 1.48 · @1.24
Draw19%fair 5.34 · @5.75
Metz13%fair 7.41 · @10.75
3.33Expected goals
2.24Marseille xG
1.09Metz xG
51%Both score
65%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–110%
2–09%
1–19%
1–08%
3–17%
3–07%
From our goals model: Marseille 2.2 – 1.1 Metz expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Marseille to win✓
68%
1.48
1.24
Double chance
Marseille or draw✓
87%
1.16
1.05
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.95
1.83
Draw no bet
Marseille (draw no bet)✓
83%
1.20
–
Asian handicap
Marseille -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
63%
1.58
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
84%
1.20
1.14
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
65%
1.54
1.45
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
56%
1.78
1.70
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
1.28
First team to score
Marseille to score first✓
65%
1.54
–
Half-time result
Marseille ahead at half-time✓
47%
2.13
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Marseille / FT Marseille✓
41%
2.43
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.21
–
Recent results
Marseille – last 4
LLWL
5 Apr
@ Monaco
1–2
L
22 Mar
vs Lille
1–2
L
13 Mar
vs Auxerre
1–0
W
20 Feb
@ Stade Brestois 29
0–2
L
0.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Metz – last 6
DDLLLL
5 Apr
vs Nantes
0–0
D
22 Mar
@ Rennes
0–0
D
15 Mar
vs Toulouse
3–4
L
8 Mar
@ Lens
0–3
L
1 Mar
vs Stade Brestois 29
0–1
L
15 Feb
vs Auxerre
1–3
L
0.7Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Marseille and Metz.
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.45.
Who will win Marseille vs Metz?
On our numbers Marseille have a 68% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Metz 13%.
How many goals will there be in Marseille vs Metz?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 65% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Marseille vs Metz?
Our predicted score is Marseille 2–1 Metz, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is Marseille vs Metz?
Marseille vs Metz (Ligue 1) kicks off on Friday 10 April 2026 at 20:05 (West Africa Time) at Orange Vélodrome.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
