Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
Picks by market
ResultLens to win ✓57% · @1.51
Double chanceLens or draw ✓79% · @1.13
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.75
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.29
Lens vs Toulouse: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Lens welcome Toulouse to Stade Bollaert-Delelis for a Ligue 1 fixture on Friday 17 April (19:45 WAT). In the table, Lens are 11th, lower half, on 13 points after 10 matches; Toulouse are 12th (lower half) with 13. They are level on points, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Lens, last 4: WWDL Their latest outing: 5–1 win over Angers, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is no problem – 2.8 a game lately.
Toulouse, last 3: LWL Their latest outing: 1–3 defeat to Paris Saint Germain, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 2.0 goals per game.
Momentum favours Lens, collecting 1.8 points per game to 1.0 for Toulouse.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Lens 1.9 xG, Toulouse 1.2 xG – a total near 3.1. That is an open game on paper: 59% for three or more goals, 58% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Lens 57%, draw 22%, Toulouse 21%.
Lower-risk option: Lens or draw (79%) at 1.13.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.75.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (80%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Lens 1–1 Toulouse. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Lens57%fair 1.75 · @1.51
Draw22%fair 4.52 · @4.30
Toulouse21%fair 4.83 · @5.70
3.13Expected goals
1.90Lens xG
1.22Toulouse xG
58%Both score
59%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–110%
2–110%
1–08%
2–08%
1–26%
3–16%
From our goals model: Lens 1.9 – 1.2 Toulouse expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Lens
Toulouse
Attack vs Ligue 1 average
+22%
+7%
Goals conceded vs average
+0%
+0%
Our expected goals here
1.97
1.53
Our own ratings from every Ligue 1 result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lens to win✓
57%
1.75
1.51
Double chance
Lens or draw✓
79%
1.26
1.13
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.72
1.75
Draw no bet
Lens (draw no bet)✓
73%
1.36
–
Asian handicap
Toulouse +1 (Asian handicap)
60%
1.65
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
59%
1.70
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
63%
1.58
1.45
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
80%
1.25
1.18
First team to score
Lens to score first✗
58%
1.72
–
Half-time result
Lens ahead at half-time✗
40%
2.50
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lens / FT Lens✗
33%
3.02
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.29
–
Recent results
Lens – last 4
WWDL
20 Mar
vs Angers
5–1
W
8 Mar
vs Metz
3–0
W
27 Feb
@ Strasbourg
1–1
D
21 Feb
vs Monaco
2–3
L
2.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
75%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Toulouse – last 3
LWL
3 Apr
@ Paris Saint Germain
1–3
L
15 Mar
@ Metz
4–3
W
15 Feb
@ Le Havre
1–2
L
2.0Scored / game
2.7Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lens and Toulouse.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Lens vs Toulouse?
On our numbers Lens have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Toulouse 21%.
How many goals will there be in Lens vs Toulouse?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lens vs Toulouse?
Our predicted score is Lens 1–1 Toulouse, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Lens vs Toulouse?
Lens vs Toulouse (Ligue 1) kicks off on Friday 17 April 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Stade Bollaert-Delelis.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
