Very strong pick · fair odds 1.28 · bookmaker 1.26 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.26Odds
Picks by market
ResultFSV Mainz 05 to win ✗53% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✗77% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓63% · @1.68
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78% · @1.26
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.20
FSV Mainz 05 vs Hamburger SV: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
20:30 WAT, Friday 20 February: FSV Mainz 05 v Hamburger SV in the Bundesliga, played at Mewa Arena. In the table, FSV Mainz 05 are 12th, lower half, on 10 points after 9 matches; Hamburger SV are 11th (lower half) with 12. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give FSV Mainz 05 2.0 xG, Hamburger SV 1.2 xG – a total near 3.2. That is an open game on paper: 57% for three or more goals, 63% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – FSV Mainz 05 53%, draw 23%, Hamburger SV 25%.
GG/NG: GG (63%) at 1.68.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (78%, odds 1.26). Most likely score in line with that pick: FSV Mainz 05 1–1 Hamburger SV. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
FSV Mainz 0553%fair 1.90 · @2.00
Draw23%fair 4.40 · @3.40
Hamburger SV25%fair 4.06 · @3.75
3.16Expected goals
1.97FSV Mainz 05 xG
1.18Hamburger SV xG
63%Both score
57%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–110%
2–110%
1–08%
2–08%
3–16%
1–26%
From our goals model: FSV Mainz 05 2.0 – 1.2 Hamburger SV expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
FSV Mainz 05 to win✗
53%
1.90
2.00 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
77%
1.29
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
63%
1.60
1.68 ▲
Draw no bet
FSV Mainz 05 (draw no bet)
68%
1.47
–
Asian handicap
Hamburger SV +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
67%
1.49
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
1.26
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
57%
1.77
1.78
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
65%
1.54
1.36
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
1.13
First team to score
FSV Mainz 05 to score first✓
60%
1.67
–
Half-time result
FSV Mainz 05 ahead at half-time✓
42%
2.40
–
Half-time / full-time
HT FSV Mainz 05 / FT FSV Mainz 05✗
35%
2.85
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.20
–
Recent results
FSV Mainz 05 – last 1
L
13 Feb
@ Borussia Dortmund
0–4
L
0.0Scored / game
4.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Hamburger SV
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between FSV Mainz 05 and Hamburger SV.
What is the prediction for FSV Mainz 05 vs Hamburger SV?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.26.
Who will win FSV Mainz 05 vs Hamburger SV?
On our numbers FSV Mainz 05 have a 53% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Hamburger SV 25%.
How many goals will there be in FSV Mainz 05 vs Hamburger SV?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for FSV Mainz 05 vs Hamburger SV?
Our predicted score is FSV Mainz 05 1–1 Hamburger SV, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is FSV Mainz 05 vs Hamburger SV?
FSV Mainz 05 vs Hamburger SV (Bundesliga) kicks off on Friday 20 February 2026 at 20:30 (West Africa Time) at Mewa Arena.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
