Value bet: FC St. Pauli to win @ 3.60 – our chance 32% vs 28% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultUnion Berlin to win ✗43% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✗74% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.51
Union Berlin vs FC St. Pauli: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 5 April the Bundesliga brings Union Berlin against FC St. Pauli at Stadion An der Alten Försterei. Kick-off: 14:30 WAT.
Current form
Union Berlin, last 3: WLW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over SC Freiburg, away. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
FC St. Pauli, last 4: LLDW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to SC Freiburg, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Momentum favours Union Berlin, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.0 for FC St. Pauli.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Union Berlin 1.4 xG, FC St. Pauli 1.3 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 45%, GG 56%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Union Berlin 43%, draw 26%, FC St. Pauli 32%.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 2.00.
Price worth noting: FC St. Pauli to win @3.60 – the bookmaker implies 28%, our ratings say 32%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (75%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Union Berlin 1–1 FC St. Pauli. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Union Berlin43%fair 2.35 · @2.10
Draw26%fair 3.85 · @3.15
FC St. Pauli32%fair 3.17 · @3.60
2.68Expected goals
1.42Union Berlin xG
1.26FC St. Pauli xG
56%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–010%
2–19%
0–19%
1–28%
2–07%
From our goals model: Union Berlin 1.4 – 1.3 FC St. Pauli expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Union Berlin to win✗
43%
2.35
2.10
Double chance
Either team to win✗
74%
1.35
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
56%
1.79
2.00 ▲
Draw no bet
Union Berlin (draw no bet)
57%
1.74
–
Asian handicap
FC St. Pauli +1 (Asian handicap)✓
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.45
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.82
1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.20
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
88%
1.14
1.05
First team to score
Union Berlin to score first✗
49%
2.03
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.36
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Union Berlin / FT Union Berlin✗
24%
4.21
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.51
–
Recent results
Union Berlin – last 3
WLW
15 Mar
@ SC Freiburg
1–0
W
8 Mar
vs Werder Bremen
1–4
L
21 Feb
vs Bayer Leverkusen
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
FC St. Pauli – last 4
LLDW
22 Mar
vs SC Freiburg
1–2
L
13 Mar
@ Borussia Mönchengladbach
0–2
L
8 Mar
vs Eintracht Frankfurt
0–0
D
22 Feb
vs Werder Bremen
2–1
W
0.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Union Berlin and FC St. Pauli.
What is the prediction for Union Berlin vs FC St. Pauli?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Union Berlin vs FC St. Pauli?
On our numbers Union Berlin have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 26% and FC St. Pauli 32%.
How many goals will there be in Union Berlin vs FC St. Pauli?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Union Berlin vs FC St. Pauli?
Our predicted score is Union Berlin 1–1 FC St. Pauli, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Union Berlin vs FC St. Pauli?
Union Berlin vs FC St. Pauli (Bundesliga) kicks off on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
