RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
19:30 WAT, Friday 24 April: RB Leipzig v Union Berlin in the Bundesliga, played at Red Bull Arena. In the table, RB Leipzig are 4th, among the top four, on 18 points after 9 matches; Union Berlin are 16th (in the drop zone) with 7.
Current form
RB Leipzig, last 4: WLWD Their latest outing: 5–0 win over 1899 Hoffenheim, at home. 2.3 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Union Berlin, last 4: DWLW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with FC St. Pauli, at home. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give RB Leipzig 2.6 xG, Union Berlin 1.0 xG – a total near 3.6. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 66% and GG at 60%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – RB Leipzig 71%, draw 17%, Union Berlin 12%.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.67.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was RB Leipzig to win (71%, odds 1.41). Most likely score in line with that pick: RB Leipzig 2–0 Union Berlin. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
RB Leipzig71%fair 1.41 · @1.41
Draw17%fair 5.83 · @4.80
Union Berlin12%fair 8.52 · @6.60
3.56Expected goals
2.59RB Leipzig xG
0.97Union Berlin xG
60%Both score
66%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–010%
2–19%
3–08%
3–18%
1–07%
1–17%
From our goals model: RB Leipzig 2.6 – 1.0 Union Berlin expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
RB Leipzig
Union Berlin
Attack vs Bundesliga average
+45%
-36%
Goals conceded vs average
-12%
+10%
Our expected goals here
3.09
1.11
Our own ratings from every Bundesliga result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
RB Leipzig to win✓
71%
1.41
1.41
Double chance
RB Leipzig or draw✓
88%
1.13
1.09
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
60%
1.66
1.67
Draw no bet
RB Leipzig (draw no bet)✓
86%
1.17
–
Asian handicap
RB Leipzig -1 (Asian handicap)✓
65%
1.54
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
1.17
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
66%
1.52
1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
55%
1.81
1.62
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
73%
1.36
1.25
First team to score
RB Leipzig to score first✓
71%
1.41
–
Half-time result
RB Leipzig ahead at half-time✓
54%
1.86
–
Half-time / full-time
HT RB Leipzig / FT RB Leipzig✓
49%
2.03
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.82
–
Recent results
RB Leipzig – last 4
WLWD
20 Mar
vs 1899 Hoffenheim
5–0
W
15 Mar
@ VfB Stuttgart
0–1
L
1 Mar
@ Hamburger SV
2–1
W
15 Feb
vs VfL Wolfsburg
2–2
D
2.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Union Berlin – last 4
DWLW
5 Apr
vs FC St. Pauli
1–1
D
15 Mar
@ SC Freiburg
1–0
W
8 Mar
vs Werder Bremen
1–4
L
21 Feb
vs Bayer Leverkusen
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between RB Leipzig and Union Berlin.
What is the prediction for RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin?
Our pick is RB Leipzig to win with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.41.
Who will win RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin?
On our numbers RB Leipzig have a 71% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Union Berlin 12%.
How many goals will there be in RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin?
We expect about 3.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 66% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin?
Our predicted score is RB Leipzig 2–0 Union Berlin, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.6 goals in total.
When is RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin?
RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin (Bundesliga) kicks off on Friday 24 April 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Red Bull Arena.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
