Very strong pick · fair odds 1.24 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
2
Value bet: 1. FC Nürnberg to win @ 2.50 – our chance 45% vs 40% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
Result1. FC Nürnberg to win ✗45% · @2.50
Double chanceEither team to win ✗77% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓66% · @1.48
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓81% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 10.72
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
12:30 WAT, Sunday 3 May: SpVgg Greuther Fürth v 1. FC Nürnberg in the 2. Bundesliga, played at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer. In the table, SpVgg Greuther Fürth are 10th, lower half, on 12 points after 11 matches; 1. FC Nürnberg are 2nd (among the top four) with 24. There are 12 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
SpVgg Greuther Fürth, last 5: LWLLW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to VfL Bochum, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
1. FC Nürnberg, last 5: WDLLD Their latest outing: 1–0 win over 1. FC Magdeburg, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.4 xG, 1. FC Nürnberg 1.8 xG – a total near 3.2. That is an open game on paper: 61% for three or more goals, 66% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – SpVgg Greuther Fürth 32%, draw 23%, 1. FC Nürnberg 45%.
GG/NG: GG (66%) at 1.48.
Price worth noting: 1. FC Nürnberg to win @2.50 – the bookmaker implies 40%, our ratings say 45%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (81%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1–1 1. FC Nürnberg. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
SpVgg Greuther Fürth32%fair 3.10 · @2.50
Draw23%fair 4.42 · @3.65
1. FC Nürnberg45%fair 2.22 · @2.50
3.21Expected goals
1.38SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
1.831. FC Nürnberg xG
66%Both score
61%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–110%
1–29%
0–17%
2–17%
0–27%
2–26%
From our goals model: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.4 – 1.8 1. FC Nürnberg expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
1. FC Nürnberg to win✗
45%
2.22
2.50 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
77%
1.29
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
66%
1.52
1.48
Draw no bet
1. FC Nürnberg (draw no bet)
58%
1.71
–
Asian handicap
SpVgg Greuther Fürth +1 (Asian handicap)✓
66%
1.51
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
61%
1.65
1.60
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
61%
1.63
1.50
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
1.20
First team to score
1. FC Nürnberg to score first
55%
1.83
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
38%
2.64
–
Half-time / full-time
HT 1. FC Nürnberg / FT 1. FC Nürnberg✗
30%
3.38
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
10.72
–
Recent results
SpVgg Greuther Fürth – last 6
LWLLWW
26 Apr
@ VfL Bochum
1–2
L
19 Apr
vs SV Darmstadt 98
3–2
W
5 Apr
vs SC Paderborn 07
0–2
L
20 Mar
@ Karlsruher SC
1–3
L
13 Mar
vs SV Elversberg
2–0
W
8 Mar
@ Hannover 96
2–1
W
1.5Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
1. FC Nürnberg – last 6
WDLLDW
26 Apr
vs 1. FC Magdeburg
1–0
W
5 Apr
@ Eintracht Braunschweig
1–1
D
7 Mar
vs Fortuna Düsseldorf
0–1
L
1 Mar
@ Hertha BSC
1–2
L
20 Feb
@ VfL Bochum
1–1
D
13 Feb
vs Karlsruher SC
5–1
W
1.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Nürnberg.
What is the prediction for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
On our numbers SpVgg Greuther Fürth have a 32% chance of winning, the draw 23% and 1. FC Nürnberg 45%.
How many goals will there be in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 66% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our predicted score is SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1–1 1. FC Nürnberg, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg (2. Bundesliga) kicks off on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 12:30 (West Africa Time) at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
SV Elversberg5
SC Paderborn 071
Preußen Münster3