Value bet: Montpellier to win @ 2.75 – our chance 44% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +21%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultMontpellier to win ✗44% · @2.75
Double chanceEither team to win ✗75% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.65
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗73% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.72
Montpellier vs Estac Troyes: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Estac Troyes travel to face Montpellier on Saturday 4 April in the Ligue 2, with Stade de la Mosson the venue – the ball rolls at 13:00 WAT.
Current form
Montpellier, last 5: DWWDL Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with PAU, away. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.2 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Estac Troyes, last 4: WWWD Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Annecy, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is no problem – 2.0 a game lately. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Estac Troyes, collecting 2.5 points per game to 1.6 for Montpellier.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Montpellier 1.5 xG, Estac Troyes 1.0 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 48%, GG 58%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Montpellier 44%, draw 25%, Estac Troyes 31%.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.65.
Price worth noting: Montpellier to win @2.75 – the bookmaker implies 36%, our ratings say 44%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (73%, odds 1.33). Most likely score in line with that pick: Montpellier 1–0 Estac Troyes. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Montpellier44%fair 2.27 · @2.75
Draw25%fair 3.95 · @3.25
Estac Troyes31%fair 3.27 · @2.50
2.51Expected goals
1.53Montpellier xG
0.98Estac Troyes xG
58%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–012%
1–112%
2–010%
2–19%
0–08%
0–18%
From our goals model: Montpellier 1.5 – 1.0 Estac Troyes expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Montpellier to win✗
44%
2.27
2.75 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
75%
1.34
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.73
1.65
Draw no bet
Montpellier (draw no bet)
59%
1.69
–
Asian handicap
Estac Troyes +1 (Asian handicap)✓
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
52%
1.91
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
73%
1.37
1.33
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
1.12
First team to score
Montpellier to score first
56%
1.78
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.30
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Montpellier / FT Montpellier✗
30%
3.32
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.72
–
Recent results
Montpellier – last 5
DWWDL
20 Mar
@ PAU
0–0
D
13 Mar
vs Laval
2–0
W
6 Mar
@ Nancy
3–0
W
27 Feb
vs Reims
0–0
D
20 Feb
@ Rodez
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
0.2Conceded / game
0%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Estac Troyes – last 4
WWWD
16 Mar
@ Annecy
2–1
W
2 Mar
@ Amiens
2–0
W
21 Feb
vs PAU
4–3
W
16 Feb
@ Bastia
0–0
D
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Montpellier and Estac Troyes.
What is the prediction for Montpellier vs Estac Troyes?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Montpellier vs Estac Troyes?
On our numbers Montpellier have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Estac Troyes 31%.
How many goals will there be in Montpellier vs Estac Troyes?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Montpellier vs Estac Troyes?
Our predicted score is Montpellier 1–0 Estac Troyes, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Montpellier vs Estac Troyes?
Montpellier vs Estac Troyes (Ligue 2) kicks off on Saturday 4 April 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time) at Stade de la Mosson.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
