Value bet: Real Madrid to win @ 2.22 – our chance 50% vs 45% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultReal Madrid to win ✓50% · @2.22
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✓10% · fair 10.30
Celta Vigo vs Real Madrid: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Friday 6 March the La Liga brings Celta Vigo against Real Madrid at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos. Kick-off: 21:00 WAT. In the table, Celta Vigo are 11th, lower half, on 13 points after 12 matches; Real Madrid are 2nd (among the top four) with 30. There are 17 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Celta Vigo, last 3: WWW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over PAOK, at home. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 0.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Real Madrid, last 3: LWW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Getafe, at home. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.7 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Celta Vigo, collecting 3.0 points per game to 2.0 for Real Madrid.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Celta Vigo 1.0 xG, Real Madrid 1.7 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 52%, GG 57%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Celta Vigo 26%, draw 24%, Real Madrid 50%.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.62.
Price worth noting: Real Madrid to win @2.22 – the bookmaker implies 45%, our ratings say 50%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (75%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Celta Vigo 1–1 Real Madrid. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Celta Vigo26%fair 3.84 · @3.05
Draw24%fair 4.13 · @3.45
Real Madrid50%fair 2.01 · @2.22
2.69Expected goals
1.00Celta Vigo xG
1.70Real Madrid xG
57%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–111%
1–111%
0–210%
1–210%
0–07%
1–07%
From our goals model: Celta Vigo 1.0 – 1.7 Real Madrid expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Celta Vigo
Real Madrid
Attack vs La Liga average
-27%
+52%
Goals conceded vs average
-18%
-38%
Our expected goals here
0.84
1.78
Our own ratings from every La Liga result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Real Madrid to win✓
50%
2.01
2.22 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.76
1.62
Draw no bet
Real Madrid (draw no bet)✓
66%
1.52
–
Asian handicap
Celta Vigo +1 (Asian handicap)
61%
1.64
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.93
1.77
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.44
1.40
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
1.14
First team to score
Real Madrid to score first
59%
1.70
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
41%
2.41
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Real Madrid / FT Real Madrid✗
33%
3.03
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✓
10%
10.30
–
Recent results
Celta Vigo – last 3
WWW
26 Feb
vs PAOK
1–0
W
22 Feb
vs Mallorca
2–0
W
19 Feb
@ PAOK
2–1
W
1.7Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Real Madrid – last 3
LWW
2 Mar
vs Getafe
0–1
L
25 Feb
vs Benfica
2–1
W
17 Feb
@ Benfica
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Celta Vigo and Real Madrid.
What is the prediction for Celta Vigo vs Real Madrid?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Celta Vigo vs Real Madrid?
On our numbers Celta Vigo have a 26% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Real Madrid 50%.
How many goals will there be in Celta Vigo vs Real Madrid?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Celta Vigo vs Real Madrid?
Our predicted score is Celta Vigo 1–1 Real Madrid, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Celta Vigo vs Real Madrid?
Celta Vigo vs Real Madrid (La Liga) kicks off on Friday 6 March 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
