Value bet: Alaves to win @ 3.20 – our chance 35% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultVillarreal to win ✗40% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✗75% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.77
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 12.17
Alaves vs Villarreal: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
21:00 WAT, Friday 13 March: Alaves v Villarreal in the La Liga, played at Estadio Mendizorrotza. In the table, Alaves are 12th, lower half, on 13 points after 12 matches; Villarreal are 8th (upper half) with 15. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Villarreal, last 3: WWW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Elche, at home. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 0.7 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Alaves 1.4 xG, Villarreal 1.4 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 50%, GG 59%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Alaves 35%, draw 25%, Villarreal 40%.
GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.77.
Price worth noting: Alaves to win @3.20 – the bookmaker implies 31%, our ratings say 35%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (73%, odds 1.33). Most likely score in line with that pick: Alaves 1–1 Villarreal. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Alaves35%fair 2.89 · @3.20
Draw25%fair 3.97 · @3.35
Villarreal40%fair 2.49 · @2.20
2.75Expected goals
1.39Alaves xG
1.36Villarreal xG
59%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–09%
0–19%
2–18%
1–28%
0–06%
From our goals model: Alaves 1.4 – 1.4 Villarreal expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Villarreal to win✗
40%
2.49
2.20
Double chance
Either team to win✗
75%
1.34
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
59%
1.71
1.77
Draw no bet
Villarreal (draw no bet)
54%
1.86
–
Asian handicap
Villarreal +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.36
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
50%
1.98
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.28
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
86%
1.16
1.09
First team to score
Alaves to score first✓
47%
2.11
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.39
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Alaves / FT Alaves✗
22%
4.54
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
12.17
–
Recent results
Alaves – last 2
LD
27 Feb
@ Levante
0–2
L
23 Feb
vs Girona
2–2
D
1.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Villarreal – last 3
WWW
8 Mar
vs Elche
2–1
W
22 Feb
vs Valencia
2–1
W
18 Feb
@ Levante
1–0
W
1.7Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Alaves and Villarreal.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Alaves vs Villarreal?
On our numbers Alaves have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Villarreal 40%.
How many goals will there be in Alaves vs Villarreal?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alaves vs Villarreal?
Our predicted score is Alaves 1–1 Villarreal, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Alaves vs Villarreal?
Alaves vs Villarreal (La Liga) kicks off on Friday 13 March 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Mendizorrotza.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
