Villarreal 35%Draw 24%Atletico Madrid 41%Expected goals 1.40 – 1.57
61%
Betarazi pick
Under 3.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.63 · bookmaker 1.65 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.65Odds
Picks by market
ResultAtletico Madrid to win ✗41% · @2.58
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓63% · @1.42
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.29
Villarreal vs Atletico Madrid: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
20:00 WAT, Sunday 24 May: Villarreal v Atletico Madrid in the La Liga, played at Estadio de la Ceramica. In the table, Villarreal are 8th, upper half, on 15 points after 12 matches; Atletico Madrid are 3rd (among the top four) with 28. There are 13 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Villarreal, last 5: LLDDL Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Rayo Vallecano, away. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Atletico Madrid, last 5: WWLDL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Girona, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Villarreal 1.4 xG, Atletico Madrid 1.6 xG – a total near 3.0. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 60% and GG at 63%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Villarreal 35%, draw 24%, Atletico Madrid 41%.
GG/NG: GG (63%) at 1.42.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (61%, odds 1.65). Most likely score in line with that pick: Villarreal 1–1 Atletico Madrid. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Villarreal35%fair 2.83 · @2.45
Draw24%fair 4.15 · @3.65
Atletico Madrid41%fair 2.47 · @2.58
2.97Expected goals
1.40Villarreal xG
1.57Atletico Madrid xG
63%Both score
60%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
1–29%
0–18%
2–18%
1–07%
0–26%
From our goals model: Villarreal 1.4 – 1.6 Atletico Madrid expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Atletico Madrid to win✗
41%
2.47
2.58
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
63%
1.59
1.42
Draw no bet
Atletico Madrid (draw no bet)✗
53%
1.87
–
Asian handicap
Villarreal +1 (Asian handicap)✓
74%
1.36
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
80%
1.24
1.17
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
60%
1.67
1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
61%
1.63
1.65
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
78%
1.28
1.28
First team to score
Atletico Madrid to score first
50%
1.99
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
40%
2.51
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Atletico Madrid / FT Atletico Madrid✗
25%
4.04
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.29
–
Recent results
Villarreal – last 6
LLDDLW
17 May
@ Rayo Vallecano
0–2
L
13 May
vs Sevilla
2–3
L
10 May
@ Mallorca
1–1
D
23 Apr
@ Oviedo
1–1
D
6 Apr
@ Girona
0–1
L
20 Mar
vs Real Sociedad
3–1
W
1.2Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Atletico Madrid – last 6
WWLDLL
17 May
vs Girona
1–0
W
12 May
@ Osasuna
2–1
W
5 May
@ Arsenal
0–1
L
29 Apr
vs Arsenal
1–1
D
22 Apr
@ Elche
2–3
L
14 Apr
vs Barcelona
1–2
L
1.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Villarreal and Atletico Madrid.
What is the prediction for Villarreal vs Atletico Madrid?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.65.
Who will win Villarreal vs Atletico Madrid?
On our numbers Villarreal have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Atletico Madrid 41%.
How many goals will there be in Villarreal vs Atletico Madrid?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Villarreal vs Atletico Madrid?
Our predicted score is Villarreal 1–1 Atletico Madrid, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Villarreal vs Atletico Madrid?
Villarreal vs Atletico Madrid (La Liga) kicks off on Sunday 24 May 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio de la Ceramica.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
