Burgos 62%Draw 23%AD Ceuta FC 14%Expected goals 1.84 – 0.66
68%
Betarazi pick
Over 1.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.48 · bookmaker 1.48 · Won ✓
7/10Rating
1.48Odds
1
Value bet: Burgos to win @ 1.84 – our chance 62% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultBurgos to win ✗62% · @1.84
Double chanceBurgos or draw ✓86% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @2.05
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.88
Burgos vs AD Ceuta FC: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
19:00 WAT, Wednesday 1 April: Burgos v AD Ceuta FC in the Segunda División, played at Estadio Municipal de El Plantío. In the table, Burgos are 3rd, among the top four, on 24 points after 13 matches; AD Ceuta FC are 22nd (in the drop zone) with 5. There are 19 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Burgos, last 3: WDL Their latest outing: 4–0 win over Cordoba, at home. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
AD Ceuta FC, last 5: WLWWW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Cadiz, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Momentum favours AD Ceuta FC, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.3 for Burgos.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Burgos 1.8 xG, AD Ceuta FC 0.7 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 42%, GG 52%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Burgos 62%, draw 23%, AD Ceuta FC 14%.
Lower-risk option: Burgos or draw (86%) at 1.18.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 2.05.
Price worth noting: Burgos to win @1.84 – the bookmaker implies 54%, our ratings say 62%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (68%, odds 1.48). Most likely score in line with that pick: Burgos 2–0 AD Ceuta FC. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Burgos62%fair 1.61 · @1.84
Draw23%fair 4.27 · @3.20
AD Ceuta FC14%fair 6.97 · @4.70
2.50Expected goals
1.84Burgos xG
0.66AD Ceuta FC xG
52%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–015%
2–014%
1–110%
2–19%
3–08%
0–08%
From our goals model: Burgos 1.8 – 0.7 AD Ceuta FC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Burgos
AD Ceuta FC
Attack vs Segunda División average
+0%
-31%
Goals conceded vs average
-23%
+35%
Our expected goals here
2.12
0.63
Our own ratings from every Segunda División result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Burgos to win✗
62%
1.61
1.84 ▲
Double chance
Burgos or draw✓
86%
1.17
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.92
2.05 ▲
Draw no bet
Burgos (draw no bet)
81%
1.23
–
Asian handicap
Burgos -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
66%
1.53
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.48
1.48
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.74
1.55
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
1.18
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
90%
1.12
1.05
First team to score
Burgos to score first
67%
1.48
–
Half-time result
Burgos ahead at half-time✗
46%
2.18
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Burgos / FT Burgos✗
42%
2.41
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.88
–
Recent results
Burgos – last 3
WDL
22 Mar
vs Cordoba
4–0
W
15 Mar
@ Eibar
0–0
D
22 Feb
@ Racing Santander
0–1
L
1.3Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
0%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
AD Ceuta FC – last 6
WLWWWL
28 Mar
vs Cadiz
2–1
W
8 Mar
@ Las Palmas
0–4
L
1 Mar
@ Mirandes
1–0
W
25 Feb
vs Cordoba
3–2
W
20 Feb
vs Granada CF
2–1
W
15 Feb
@ Huesca
0–2
L
1.3Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Burgos and AD Ceuta FC.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.48.
Who will win Burgos vs AD Ceuta FC?
On our numbers Burgos have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 23% and AD Ceuta FC 14%.
How many goals will there be in Burgos vs AD Ceuta FC?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Burgos vs AD Ceuta FC?
Our predicted score is Burgos 2–0 AD Ceuta FC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Burgos vs AD Ceuta FC?
Burgos vs AD Ceuta FC (Segunda División) kicks off on Wednesday 1 April 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal de El Plantío.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Huesca1
Cultural Leonesa1
Racing Santander3