Value bet: Real Sociedad II to win @ 3.40 – our chance 33% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultAD Ceuta FC to win ✗42% · @2.08
Double chanceEither team to win ✗74% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 11.82
AD Ceuta FC vs Real Sociedad II: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Friday 10 April the Segunda División brings AD Ceuta FC against Real Sociedad II at Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube. Kick-off: 19:30 WAT. In the table, AD Ceuta FC are 22nd, in the drop zone, on 5 points after 13 matches; Real Sociedad II are 17th (lower half) with 12.
Current form
AD Ceuta FC, last 5: LDWLW Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to Eibar, away. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Real Sociedad II, last 5: LLLLW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Sporting Gijon, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 2 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Momentum favours AD Ceuta FC, collecting 1.7 points per game to 1.0 for Real Sociedad II.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give AD Ceuta FC 1.4 xG, Real Sociedad II 1.4 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 52%, GG 58%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – AD Ceuta FC 42%, draw 26%, Real Sociedad II 33%.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.62.
Price worth noting: Real Sociedad II to win @3.40 – the bookmaker implies 29%, our ratings say 33%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (75%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: AD Ceuta FC 1–1 Real Sociedad II. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
AD Ceuta FC42%fair 2.41 · @2.08
Draw26%fair 3.89 · @3.35
Real Sociedad II33%fair 3.05 · @3.40
2.75Expected goals
1.40AD Ceuta FC xG
1.35Real Sociedad II xG
58%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–09%
0–19%
2–18%
1–28%
0–06%
From our goals model: AD Ceuta FC 1.4 – 1.4 Real Sociedad II expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
AD Ceuta FC
Real Sociedad II
Attack vs Segunda División average
-31%
-11%
Goals conceded vs average
+35%
+16%
Our expected goals here
1.26
1.42
Our own ratings from every Segunda División result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
AD Ceuta FC to win✗
42%
2.41
2.08
Double chance
Either team to win✗
74%
1.35
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
58%
1.71
1.62
Draw no bet
AD Ceuta FC (draw no bet)
56%
1.79
–
Asian handicap
Real Sociedad II +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
62%
1.62
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
75%
1.33
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
52%
1.91
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.38
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
1.14
First team to score
AD Ceuta FC to score first✗
48%
2.10
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
42%
2.40
–
Half-time / full-time
HT AD Ceuta FC / FT AD Ceuta FC✗
22%
4.47
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
11.82
–
Recent results
AD Ceuta FC – last 6
LDWLWW
5 Apr
@ Eibar
0–3
L
1 Apr
@ Burgos
1–1
D
28 Mar
vs Cadiz
2–1
W
8 Mar
@ Las Palmas
0–4
L
1 Mar
@ Mirandes
1–0
W
25 Feb
vs Cordoba
3–2
W
1.2Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Real Sociedad II – last 6
LLLLWW
6 Apr
@ Sporting Gijon
0–1
L
2 Apr
vs Eibar
0–1
L
29 Mar
@ Almeria
1–5
L
22 Mar
vs Granada CF
0–2
L
18 Mar
@ Crystal Palace U21
3–0
W
15 Mar
@ Cordoba
2–0
W
1.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between AD Ceuta FC and Real Sociedad II.
What is the prediction for AD Ceuta FC vs Real Sociedad II?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win AD Ceuta FC vs Real Sociedad II?
On our numbers AD Ceuta FC have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Real Sociedad II 33%.
How many goals will there be in AD Ceuta FC vs Real Sociedad II?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for AD Ceuta FC vs Real Sociedad II?
Our predicted score is AD Ceuta FC 1–1 Real Sociedad II, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is AD Ceuta FC vs Real Sociedad II?
AD Ceuta FC vs Real Sociedad II (Segunda División) kicks off on Friday 10 April 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
