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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Progres Niederkorn v Swift Hesperange: numbers & prediction

National Division · Luxembourg · Stade Jos Haupert

Progres Niederkorn

1–1
FT

Swift Hesperange

Progres Niederkorn 67%Draw 20%Swift Hesperange 13% Expected goals 2.30 – 0.70
76%
Betarazi pick

Over 1.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.31 · bookmaker 1.28 · Won ✓

8/10Rating
1.28Odds
1

Value bet: Progres Niederkorn to win @ 1.70 – our chance 67% vs 59% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗

Picks by market

ResultProgres Niederkorn to win ✗67% · @1.70
Double chanceProgres Niederkorn or draw ✓87% · @1.14
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.75
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.86

Progres Niederkorn vs Swift Hesperange: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Progres Niederkorn welcome Swift Hesperange to Stade Jos Haupert for a National Division fixture on Sunday 15 February (16:00 WAT). In the table, Progres Niederkorn are 6th, upper half, on 22 points after 12 matches; Swift Hesperange are 16th (in the drop zone) with 0. There are 22 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Progres Niederkorn 2.3 xG, Swift Hesperange 0.7 xG – a total near 3.0. That is an open game on paper: 54% for three or more goals, 57% for GG.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Progres Niederkorn 67%, draw 20%, Swift Hesperange 13%.
  • Lower-risk option: Progres Niederkorn or draw (87%) at 1.14.
  • GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.75.
  • Price worth noting: Progres Niederkorn to win @1.70 – the bookmaker implies 59%, our ratings say 67%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (76%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: Progres Niederkorn 2–0 Swift Hesperange. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Progres Niederkorn67%fair 1.50 · @1.70
Draw20%fair 4.95 · @3.50
Swift Hesperange13%fair 7.73 · @4.33
2.99Expected goals
2.30Progres Niederkorn xG
0.70Swift Hesperange xG
57%Both score
54%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

2–013%
1–012%
3–010%
2–19%
1–18%
3–17%

From our goals model: Progres Niederkorn 2.3 – 0.7 Swift Hesperange expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultProgres Niederkorn to win ✗67%1.501.70 ▲
Double chanceProgres Niederkorn or draw ✓87%1.151.14
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓57%1.751.75
Draw no betProgres Niederkorn (draw no bet)84%1.19–
Asian handicapProgres Niederkorn -1 (Asian handicap) ✗65%1.53–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76%1.311.28
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✗54%1.861.85
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓68%1.471.30
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓82%1.23–
First team to scoreProgres Niederkorn to score first ✗73%1.37–
Half-time resultProgres Niederkorn ahead at half-time ✗53%1.88–
Half-time / full-timeHT Progres Niederkorn / FT Progres Niederkorn ✗49%2.03–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9%10.86–

Recent results

Progres Niederkorn

No recent results on record.

Swift Hesperange

No recent results on record.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Progres Niederkorn and Swift Hesperange.

Progres Niederkorn vs Swift Hesperange head-to-head page →

National Division table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1UNA Strassen121110+2034
2FC Differdange 03121101+2633
3US Mondorf-les-bains12903+427
4Atert Bissen12813+1625
5Racing FC Union Luxembourg12642+1822
6Progres Niederkorn12714+1022
7UN Kaerjeng 9712705+1021
8Résidence Walferdange12525-317
9F91 Dudelange12516+216
10AS Jeunesse Esch12417-513
11US Hostert12327-611
12Victoria Rosport12327-811
13US Rumelange12327-1511
14Etzella Ettelbruck12228-148
15Wiltz12138-136
16Swift Hesperange120012-420

More National Division predictions

League hub
FT Atert Bissen2 F91 Dudelange0 139%3.10X23%3.40238%2.05 1.8–1.5xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 81%@1.20 ✓
FT Mamer2 AS Jeunesse Esch1 125%3.80X24%3.35252%1.85 1.1–1.7xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 75%@1.28 ✓
FT US Hostert2 Union Titus Petange0 133%2.70X24%3.20243%2.40 1.3–1.6xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 76%@1.28 ✓
FT UN Kaerjeng 971 US Mondorf-les-bains2 133%4.00X23%3.45244%1.77 1.7–1.6xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 79%@1.25 ✓
FT Rodange 911 Jeunesse Canach4 140%2.20X26%3.25235%2.95 1.4–1.3xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 75%@1.25 ✓
FT UNA Strassen0 Victoria Rosport0 172%1.25X17%5.50211%9.00 2.3–0.8xG 1UNA Strassen to win 72%@1.25 ✗

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Progres Niederkorn vs Swift Hesperange?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.

Who will win Progres Niederkorn vs Swift Hesperange?

On our numbers Progres Niederkorn have a 67% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Swift Hesperange 13%.

How many goals will there be in Progres Niederkorn vs Swift Hesperange?

We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Progres Niederkorn vs Swift Hesperange?

Our predicted score is Progres Niederkorn 2–0 Swift Hesperange, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.

When is Progres Niederkorn vs Swift Hesperange?

Progres Niederkorn vs Swift Hesperange (National Division) kicks off on Sunday 15 February 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Stade Jos Haupert.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.