Famalicao vs Arouca: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Friday 6 March the Primeira Liga brings Famalicao against Arouca at Estadio Municipal de Famalicao. Kick-off: 21:15 WAT. In the table, Famalicao are 10th, lower half, on 13 points after 11 matches; Arouca are 5th (upper half) with 20.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Famalicao 1.4 xG, Arouca 1.0 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 47%, GG 55%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Famalicao 50%, draw 26%, Arouca 24%.
Lower-risk option: Famalicao or draw (76%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.77.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (74%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Famalicao 1–1 Arouca. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Famalicao50%fair 2.00 · @1.84
Draw26%fair 3.79 · @3.50
Arouca24%fair 4.23 · @4.10
2.48Expected goals
1.45Famalicao xG
1.04Arouca xG
55%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–012%
2–19%
2–09%
0–19%
0–08%
From our goals model: Famalicao 1.4 – 1.0 Arouca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Famalicao to win✓
50%
2.00
1.84
Double chance
Famalicao or draw✓
76%
1.31
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.82
1.77
Draw no bet
Famalicao (draw no bet)✓
68%
1.47
–
Asian handicap
Arouca +1 (Asian handicap)
70%
1.43
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
71%
1.40
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.88
1.83
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.30
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
87%
1.14
1.10
First team to score
Famalicao to score first✓
53%
1.87
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.27
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Famalicao / FT Famalicao✗
28%
3.63
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.04
–
Recent results
Famalicao – last 2
WL
23 Feb
vs Casa Pia
2–0
W
15 Feb
@ Sporting CP
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Arouca – last 2
LW
27 Feb
@ FC Porto
1–3
L
21 Feb
vs Nacional
3–0
W
2.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Famalicao and Arouca.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Famalicao vs Arouca?
On our numbers Famalicao have a 50% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Arouca 24%.
How many goals will there be in Famalicao vs Arouca?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Famalicao vs Arouca?
Our predicted score is Famalicao 1–1 Arouca, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Famalicao vs Arouca?
Famalicao vs Arouca (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Friday 6 March 2026 at 21:15 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal de Famalicao.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
