Value bet: Estrela to win @ 2.45 – our chance 43% vs 41% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultEstrela to win ✓43% · @2.45
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @1.91
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗76% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.81
Estrela vs Casa Pia: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Estrela welcome Casa Pia to Estádio José Gomes for a Primeira Liga fixture on Friday 20 March (21:15 WAT). In the table, Estrela are 12th, lower half, on 10 points after 11 matches; Casa Pia are 16th (in the drop zone) with 8. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Estrela, last 3: LDL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Rio Ave, away. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Estrela 1.5 xG, Casa Pia 1.1 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 45%, GG 54%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Estrela 43%, draw 26%, Casa Pia 31%.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 1.91.
Price worth noting: Estrela to win @2.45 – the bookmaker implies 41%, our ratings say 43%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (76%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Estrela 1–1 Casa Pia. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Estrela43%fair 2.30 · @2.45
Draw26%fair 3.91 · @3.25
Casa Pia31%fair 3.23 · @2.82
2.64Expected goals
1.52Estrela xG
1.11Casa Pia xG
54%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
2–08%
0–18%
0–07%
From our goals model: Estrela 1.5 – 1.1 Casa Pia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Estrela to win✓
43%
2.30
2.45 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.34
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.85
1.91
Draw no bet
Estrela (draw no bet)✓
58%
1.71
–
Asian handicap
Casa Pia +1 (Asian handicap)✗
69%
1.44
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.42
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.83
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
76%
1.32
1.20
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
88%
1.14
1.06
First team to score
Estrela to score first✓
54%
1.86
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.35
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Estrela / FT Estrela✓
28%
3.59
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.81
–
Recent results
Estrela – last 3
LDL
15 Mar
@ Rio Ave
1–2
L
8 Mar
vs GIL Vicente
2–2
D
20 Feb
vs Tondela
0–2
L
1.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Casa Pia – last 2
DL
1 Mar
vs Moreirense
1–1
D
23 Feb
@ Famalicao
0–2
L
0.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Estrela and Casa Pia.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Estrela vs Casa Pia?
On our numbers Estrela have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Casa Pia 31%.
How many goals will there be in Estrela vs Casa Pia?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Estrela vs Casa Pia?
Our predicted score is Estrela 1–1 Casa Pia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Estrela vs Casa Pia?
Estrela vs Casa Pia (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Friday 20 March 2026 at 21:15 (West Africa Time) at Estádio José Gomes.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
