Value bet: Moreirense to win @ 2.96 – our chance 41% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +23%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultMoreirense to win ✓41% · @2.96
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗74% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.66
Moreirense vs Estoril: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
20:15 WAT, Monday 20 April: Moreirense v Estoril in the Primeira Liga, played at Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas. In the table, Moreirense are 9th, upper half, on 14 points after 11 matches; Estoril are 18th (in the drop zone) with 2. There are 12 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Moreirense, last 3: DDW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Famalicao, away. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Estoril, last 5: LLWLW Their latest outing: 2–3 defeat to Arouca, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 3 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Moreirense, collecting 1.7 points per game to 1.0 for Estoril.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Moreirense 1.6 xG, Estoril 1.1 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 50%, GG 60%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Moreirense 41%, draw 25%, Estoril 33%.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.70.
Price worth noting: Moreirense to win @2.96 – the bookmaker implies 34%, our ratings say 41%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (74%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Moreirense 1–1 Estoril. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Moreirense41%fair 2.41 · @2.96
Draw25%fair 3.93 · @3.30
Estoril33%fair 3.02 · @2.32
2.69Expected goals
1.57Moreirense xG
1.12Estoril xG
60%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
2–08%
0–18%
0–07%
From our goals model: Moreirense 1.6 – 1.1 Estoril expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Moreirense to win✓
41%
2.41
2.96 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.34
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
60%
1.66
1.70
Draw no bet
Moreirense (draw no bet)✓
56%
1.80
–
Asian handicap
Estoril +1 (Asian handicap)
68%
1.47
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
74%
1.36
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
50%
1.99
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
1.33
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
86%
1.17
1.11
First team to score
Moreirense to score first✓
54%
1.83
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.39
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Moreirense / FT Moreirense✓
29%
3.48
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.66
–
Recent results
Moreirense – last 3
DDW
10 Apr
@ Famalicao
1–1
D
1 Mar
@ Casa Pia
1–1
D
16 Feb
@ Rio Ave
2–1
W
1.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Estoril – last 6
LLWLWL
6 Apr
@ Arouca
2–3
L
22 Mar
vs Rio Ave
1–2
L
15 Mar
@ Nacional
1–0
W
27 Feb
@ Sporting CP
0–3
L
22 Feb
vs GIL Vicente
3–1
W
15 Feb
@ AVS
0–3
L
1.2Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Moreirense and Estoril.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Moreirense vs Estoril?
On our numbers Moreirense have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Estoril 33%.
How many goals will there be in Moreirense vs Estoril?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Moreirense vs Estoril?
Our predicted score is Moreirense 1–1 Estoril, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Moreirense vs Estoril?
Moreirense vs Estoril (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Monday 20 April 2026 at 20:15 (West Africa Time) at Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
