Good pick · fair odds 1.61 · bookmaker 1.67 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.67Odds
Picks by market
ResultSporting CP to win ✓68% · @1.23
Double chanceSporting CP or draw ✓88% · @1.04
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @1.85
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · @1.15
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.20
Sporting CP vs Guimaraes: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Sporting CP welcome Guimaraes to Estádio José Alvalade for a Primeira Liga fixture on Monday 4 May (20:15 WAT). In the table, Sporting CP are 3rd, among the top four, on 24 points after 11 matches; Guimaraes are 14th (lower half) with 9. There are 15 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Sporting CP, last 5: DDDLW Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Tondela, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Sporting CP 2.0 xG, Guimaraes 0.8 xG – a total near 2.9. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 59%, GG 51%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Sporting CP 68%, draw 20%, Guimaraes 12%.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 1.85.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (62%, odds 1.67 – longer than our fair 1.61, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Sporting CP 2–0 Guimaraes. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Sporting CP68%fair 1.47 · @1.23
Draw20%fair 5.08 · @5.70
Guimaraes12%fair 8.02 · @12.00
2.86Expected goals
2.03Sporting CP xG
0.83Guimaraes xG
51%Both score
59%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–012%
1–012%
2–110%
1–110%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: Sporting CP 2.0 – 0.8 Guimaraes expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sporting CP to win✓
68%
1.47
1.23
Double chance
Sporting CP or draw✓
88%
1.14
1.04
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.98
1.85
Draw no bet
Sporting CP (draw no bet)✓
84%
1.18
–
Asian handicap
Sporting CP -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
65%
1.54
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
1.15
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
59%
1.69
1.48
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
62%
1.61
1.67
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
79%
1.26
1.25
First team to score
Sporting CP to score first✓
67%
1.50
–
Half-time result
Sporting CP ahead at half-time✓
47%
2.13
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sporting CP / FT Sporting CP✓
42%
2.38
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.20
–
Recent results
Sporting CP – last 6
DDDLWL
29 Apr
vs Tondela
2–2
D
22 Apr
@ FC Porto
0–0
D
15 Apr
@ Arsenal
0–0
D
7 Apr
vs Arsenal
0–1
L
17 Mar
vs BodoGlimt
3–0
W
11 Mar
@ BodoGlimt
0–3
L
0.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
17%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Guimaraes – last 1
W
3 Apr
vs Tondela
5–0
W
5.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sporting CP and Guimaraes.
What is the prediction for Sporting CP vs Guimaraes?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.
Who will win Sporting CP vs Guimaraes?
On our numbers Sporting CP have a 68% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Guimaraes 12%.
How many goals will there be in Sporting CP vs Guimaraes?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sporting CP vs Guimaraes?
Our predicted score is Sporting CP 2–0 Guimaraes, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Sporting CP vs Guimaraes?
Sporting CP vs Guimaraes (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Monday 4 May 2026 at 20:15 (West Africa Time) at Estádio José Alvalade.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
