On Friday 6 March the Ligue 2 brings PAU against Bastia at Nouste Camp. Kick-off: 20:00 WAT.
Current form
Bastia, last 3: LDD Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Annecy, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.3 goals a game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give PAU 1.4 xG, Bastia 1.0 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 55%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – PAU 46%, draw 26%, Bastia 27%.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.91.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (78%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: PAU 1–0 Bastia. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
PAU46%fair 2.16 · @2.10
Draw26%fair 3.80 · @3.30
Bastia27%fair 3.65 · @3.50
2.41Expected goals
1.41PAU xG
0.99Bastia xG
55%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–013%
1–113%
0–09%
2–09%
0–19%
2–19%
From our goals model: PAU 1.4 – 1.0 Bastia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
PAU to win✗
46%
2.16
2.10
Double chance
Either team to win✗
74%
1.36
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.81
1.91 ▲
Draw no bet
PAU (draw no bet)
63%
1.59
–
Asian handicap
Bastia +1 (Asian handicap)✓
70%
1.42
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.46
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
57%
1.76
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
78%
1.29
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
89%
1.12
1.07
First team to score
PAU to score first
53%
1.87
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT PAU / FT PAU✗
27%
3.64
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.18
–
Recent results
PAU – last 2
LL
21 Feb
@ Estac Troyes
3–4
L
13 Feb
vs Boulogne
1–2
L
2.0Scored / game
3.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Bastia – last 3
LDD
27 Feb
vs Annecy
0–2
L
20 Feb
@ Dunkerque
1–1
D
16 Feb
vs Estac Troyes
0–0
D
0.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between PAU and Bastia.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win PAU vs Bastia?
On our numbers PAU have a 46% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Bastia 27%.
How many goals will there be in PAU vs Bastia?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for PAU vs Bastia?
Our predicted score is PAU 1–0 Bastia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is PAU vs Bastia?
PAU vs Bastia (Ligue 2) kicks off on Friday 6 March 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Nouste Camp.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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