Value bet: Penafiel to win @ 2.64 – our chance 41% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultPenafiel to win ✓41% · @2.64
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.94
Penafiel vs Lusitânia Lourosa: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Penafiel welcome Lusitânia Lourosa to Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril for a Segunda Liga fixture on Monday 16 February (19:00 WAT). In the table, Penafiel are 1st, leading the league, on 22 points after 10 matches; Lusitânia Lourosa are 4th (among the top four) with 19. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Penafiel 1.5 xG, Lusitânia Lourosa 1.2 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 47%, GG 57%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Penafiel 41%, draw 26%, Lusitânia Lourosa 33%.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.80.
Price worth noting: Penafiel to win @2.64 – the bookmaker implies 38%, our ratings say 41%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (71%, odds 1.40). Most likely score in line with that pick: Penafiel 1–1 Lusitânia Lourosa. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Penafiel41%fair 2.42 · @2.64
Draw26%fair 3.84 · @3.00
Lusitânia Lourosa33%fair 3.06 · @2.64
2.66Expected goals
1.50Penafiel xG
1.16Lusitânia Lourosa xG
57%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–010%
2–19%
0–18%
2–08%
1–27%
From our goals model: Penafiel 1.5 – 1.2 Lusitânia Lourosa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Penafiel
Lusitânia Lourosa
Attack vs Segunda Liga average
+48%
-0%
Goals conceded vs average
-4%
-8%
Our expected goals here
1.82
1.17
Our own ratings from every Segunda Liga result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Penafiel to win✓
41%
2.42
2.64 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.35
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.76
1.80
Draw no bet
Penafiel (draw no bet)✓
56%
1.79
–
Asian handicap
Lusitânia Lourosa +1 (Asian handicap)✗
71%
1.41
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.42
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.87
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
–
First team to score
Penafiel to score first✓
53%
1.90
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.36
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Penafiel / FT Penafiel✓
27%
3.73
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.94
–
Recent results
Penafiel
No recent results on record.
Lusitânia Lourosa
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Penafiel and Lusitânia Lourosa.
What is the prediction for Penafiel vs Lusitânia Lourosa?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Penafiel vs Lusitânia Lourosa?
On our numbers Penafiel have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Lusitânia Lourosa 33%.
How many goals will there be in Penafiel vs Lusitânia Lourosa?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Penafiel vs Lusitânia Lourosa?
Our predicted score is Penafiel 1–1 Lusitânia Lourosa, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Penafiel vs Lusitânia Lourosa?
Penafiel vs Lusitânia Lourosa (Segunda Liga) kicks off on Monday 16 February 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
