Value bet: Penafiel to win @ 4.10 – our chance 30% vs 24% implied by the price (edge +23%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultTorreense to win ✓45% · @1.84
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗74% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.37
Torreense vs Penafiel: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
18:00 WAT, Monday 4 May: Torreense v Penafiel in the Segunda Liga, played at Estadio Manuel Marques. In the table, Torreense are 13th, lower half, on 10 points after 10 matches; Penafiel are 1st (leading the league) with 22. There are 12 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Torreense, last 5: DWDWW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Feirense, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 0.2 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 5 clean sheets in that run.
Penafiel, last 5: WWLDD Their latest outing: 4–3 win over Academico Viseu, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Torreense, collecting 2.3 points per game to 1.8 for Penafiel.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Torreense 1.3 xG, Penafiel 1.2 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 55%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Torreense 45%, draw 25%, Penafiel 30%.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.80.
Price worth noting: Penafiel to win @4.10 – the bookmaker implies 24%, our ratings say 30%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (74%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: Torreense 1–1 Penafiel. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Torreense45%fair 2.23 · @1.84
Draw25%fair 3.97 · @3.30
Penafiel30%fair 3.33 · @4.10
2.50Expected goals
1.26Torreense xG
1.24Penafiel xG
55%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–010%
0–110%
0–08%
2–18%
1–28%
From our goals model: Torreense 1.3 – 1.2 Penafiel expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Torreense
Penafiel
Attack vs Segunda Liga average
-12%
+48%
Goals conceded vs average
-12%
-4%
Our expected goals here
1.13
1.59
Our own ratings from every Segunda Liga result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Torreense to win✓
45%
2.23
1.84
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.34
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.82
1.80
Draw no bet
Torreense (draw no bet)✓
60%
1.67
–
Asian handicap
Penafiel +0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.86
1.77
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
74%
1.35
1.28
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
89%
1.12
–
First team to score
Torreense to score first
46%
2.16
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.27
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Torreense / FT Torreense✓
21%
4.72
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.37
–
Recent results
Torreense – last 6
DWDWWW
28 Apr
@ Feirense
0–0
D
23 Apr
vs Fafe
2–0
W
6 Apr
vs Leixoes
1–1
D
22 Mar
@ Felgueiras 1932
3–0
W
16 Mar
vs Portimonense
1–0
W
7 Mar
@ Oliveirense
3–0
W
1.7Scored / game
0.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Penafiel – last 6
WWLDDW
11 Apr
vs Academico Viseu
4–3
W
4 Apr
@ Sporting CP B
2–1
W
15 Mar
@ Feirense
0–1
L
1 Mar
vs Benfica B
1–1
D
22 Feb
@ Felgueiras 1932
0–0
D
16 Feb
vs Lusitânia Lourosa
2–0
W
1.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Torreense and Penafiel.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Torreense vs Penafiel?
On our numbers Torreense have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Penafiel 30%.
How many goals will there be in Torreense vs Penafiel?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Torreense vs Penafiel?
Our predicted score is Torreense 1–1 Penafiel, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Torreense vs Penafiel?
Torreense vs Penafiel (Segunda Liga) kicks off on Monday 4 May 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Manuel Marques.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
