Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.30 – our chance 55% vs 43% implied by the price (edge +26%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultPAOK to win ✗57% · @1.28
Double chancePAOK or draw ✓80% · fair 1.24
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @2.30
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 10.67
Larisa vs PAOK: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Larisa welcome PAOK to AEL FC Arena for a Super League 1 fixture on Sunday 22 February (17:00 WAT).
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Larisa 1.1 xG, PAOK 1.6 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 49%, GG 55%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Larisa 20%, draw 24%, PAOK 57%.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 2.30.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.30 – the bookmaker implies 43%, our ratings say 55%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (73%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: Larisa 1–1 PAOK. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Larisa20%fair 5.12 · @11.00
Draw24%fair 4.21 · @4.55
PAOK57%fair 1.76 · @1.28
2.63Expected goals
1.07Larisa xG
1.55PAOK xG
55%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–111%
1–29%
0–29%
1–08%
0–07%
From our goals model: Larisa 1.1 – 1.6 PAOK expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
PAOK to win✗
57%
1.76
1.28
Double chance
PAOK or draw✓
80%
1.24
–
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.83
2.30 ▲
Draw no bet
PAOK (draw no bet)
74%
1.34
–
Asian handicap
Larisa +1 (Asian handicap)✓
67%
1.48
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.96
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.38
1.30
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
87%
1.14
–
First team to score
PAOK to score first✓
55%
1.82
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.35
–
Half-time / full-time
HT PAOK / FT PAOK✗
29%
3.44
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
10.67
–
Recent results
Larisa – last 1
D
15 Feb
@ Panathinaikos
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
PAOK – last 2
LD
19 Feb
vs Celta Vigo
1–2
L
15 Feb
vs AEK Athens FC
0–0
D
0.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Larisa and PAOK.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Larisa vs PAOK?
On our numbers Larisa have a 20% chance of winning, the draw 24% and PAOK 57%.
How many goals will there be in Larisa vs PAOK?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Larisa vs PAOK?
Our predicted score is Larisa 1–1 PAOK, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Larisa vs PAOK?
Larisa vs PAOK (Super League 1) kicks off on Sunday 22 February 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at AEL FC Arena.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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