Very strong pick · fair odds 1.23 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Persebaya Surabaya to win @ 1.95 – our chance 55% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultPersebaya Surabaya to win ✓55% · @1.95
Double chancePersebaya Surabaya or draw ✓82% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.87
Persebaya Surabaya vs PSM Makassar: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Persebaya Surabaya welcome PSM Makassar to Gelora Bung Tomo Stadium for a Liga 1 fixture on Wednesday 25 February (14:30 WAT). In the table, Persebaya Surabaya are 8th, upper half, on 13 points after 9 matches; PSM Makassar are 12th (lower half) with 10. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Persebaya Surabaya 1.6 xG, PSM Makassar 0.8 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 44%, GG 53%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Persebaya Surabaya 55%, draw 26%, PSM Makassar 18%.
Lower-risk option: Persebaya Surabaya or draw (82%) at 1.20.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 1.80.
Price worth noting: Persebaya Surabaya to win @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 55%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Persebaya Surabaya or draw (82%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Persebaya Surabaya 1–0 PSM Makassar. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Persebaya Surabaya55%fair 1.80 · @1.95
Draw26%fair 3.83 · @3.10
PSM Makassar18%fair 5.43 · @3.65
2.37Expected goals
1.61Persebaya Surabaya xG
0.76PSM Makassar xG
53%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–015%
2–012%
1–111%
0–09%
2–19%
0–17%
From our goals model: Persebaya Surabaya 1.6 – 0.8 PSM Makassar expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Persebaya Surabaya to win✓
55%
1.80
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Persebaya Surabaya or draw✓
82%
1.23
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.90
1.80
Draw no bet
Persebaya Surabaya (draw no bet)✓
75%
1.33
–
Asian handicap
PSM Makassar +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
69%
1.45
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
68%
1.46
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.78
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.31
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
–
First team to score
Persebaya Surabaya to score first✓
62%
1.63
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.26
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Persebaya Surabaya / FT Persebaya Surabaya✓
35%
2.84
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.87
–
Recent results
Persebaya Surabaya – last 1
L
14 Feb
vs Bhayangkara FC
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
PSM Makassar – last 2
LL
20 Feb
@ Persija
1–2
L
14 Feb
vs Dewa United
0–2
L
0.5Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Persebaya Surabaya and PSM Makassar.
What is the prediction for Persebaya Surabaya vs PSM Makassar?
Our pick is Persebaya Surabaya or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Persebaya Surabaya vs PSM Makassar?
On our numbers Persebaya Surabaya have a 55% chance of winning, the draw 26% and PSM Makassar 18%.
How many goals will there be in Persebaya Surabaya vs PSM Makassar?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Persebaya Surabaya vs PSM Makassar?
Our predicted score is Persebaya Surabaya 1–0 PSM Makassar, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Persebaya Surabaya vs PSM Makassar?
Persebaya Surabaya vs PSM Makassar (Liga 1) kicks off on Wednesday 25 February 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time) at Gelora Bung Tomo Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
