Value bet: Persepam Madura Utd to win @ 2.65 – our chance 41% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultPersepam Madura Utd to win ✓41% · @2.65
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.73
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.29
Semen Padang vs Persepam Madura Utd: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Wednesday 29 April the Liga 1 brings Semen Padang against Persepam Madura Utd at Stadion GOR Haji Agus Salim. Kick-off: 09:30 WAT.
Current form
Semen Padang, last 5: LLLWD Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Persijap, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.3 goals a game.
Persepam Madura Utd, last 5: LWWLL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Dewa United, at home. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 2.3 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Semen Padang 1.1 xG, Persepam Madura Utd 1.4 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 47%, GG 58%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Semen Padang 33%, draw 26%, Persepam Madura Utd 41%.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.73.
Price worth noting: Persepam Madura Utd to win @2.65 – the bookmaker implies 38%, our ratings say 41%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (74%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: Semen Padang 1–1 Persepam Madura Utd. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Semen Padang33%fair 3.02 · @2.40
Draw26%fair 3.82 · @3.25
Persepam Madura Utd41%fair 2.45 · @2.65
2.51Expected goals
1.10Semen Padang xG
1.40Persepam Madura Utd xG
58%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–111%
1–09%
1–29%
0–08%
0–28%
From our goals model: Semen Padang 1.1 – 1.4 Persepam Madura Utd expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Persepam Madura Utd to win✓
41%
2.45
2.65 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.35
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
58%
1.73
1.73
Draw no bet
Persepam Madura Utd (draw no bet)✓
55%
1.81
–
Asian handicap
Semen Padang +1 (Asian handicap)
73%
1.37
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
71%
1.40
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.88
1.77
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.28
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
89%
1.12
–
First team to score
Persepam Madura Utd to score first✓
51%
1.95
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.28
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Persepam Madura Utd / FT Persepam Madura Utd✓
26%
3.89
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.29
–
Recent results
Semen Padang – last 6
LLLWDL
20 Apr
vs Persijap
0–2
L
12 Apr
@ Persis Solo
1–2
L
5 Apr
vs Persib Bandung
0–2
L
9 Mar
@ PSBS Biak Numfor
1–0
W
4 Mar
vs PSIM Yogyakarta
0–0
D
24 Feb
@ Bhayangkara FC
0–4
L
0.3Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Persepam Madura Utd – last 6
LWWLLL
25 Apr
vs Dewa United
1–2
L
17 Apr
@ Persebaya Surabaya
2–1
W
11 Apr
vs Persik Kediri
2–1
W
5 Apr
vs Pusamania Borneo
1–3
L
3 Mar
vs Malut United
1–2
L
26 Feb
@ Persib Bandung
0–5
L
1.2Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Semen Padang and Persepam Madura Utd.
What is the prediction for Semen Padang vs Persepam Madura Utd?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Semen Padang vs Persepam Madura Utd?
On our numbers Semen Padang have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Persepam Madura Utd 41%.
How many goals will there be in Semen Padang vs Persepam Madura Utd?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Semen Padang vs Persepam Madura Utd?
Our predicted score is Semen Padang 1–1 Persepam Madura Utd, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Semen Padang vs Persepam Madura Utd?
Semen Padang vs Persepam Madura Utd (Liga 1) kicks off on Wednesday 29 April 2026 at 09:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadion GOR Haji Agus Salim.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
