Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: Bali United to win @ 2.70 – our chance 40% vs 37% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultBali United to win ✗40% · @2.70
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗64% · @1.55
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.32
Persepam Madura Utd vs Bali United: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Tuesday 5 May the Liga 1 brings Persepam Madura Utd against Bali United at Gelora Ratu Pamelingan Stadium. Kick-off: 09:30 WAT. In the table, Persepam Madura Utd are 4th, among the top four, on 19 points after 9 matches; Bali United are 3rd (among the top four) with 19. They are level on points, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Persepam Madura Utd, last 5: WLWWL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Semen Padang, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 3 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Bali United, last 5: WWWLW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over PSM Makassar, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. 2.5 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Momentum favours Bali United, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.5 for Persepam Madura Utd.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Persepam Madura Utd 1.5 xG, Bali United 1.7 xG – a total near 3.1. That is an open game on paper: 58% for three or more goals, 64% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Persepam Madura Utd 37%, draw 23%, Bali United 40%.
GG/NG: GG (64%) at 1.55.
Price worth noting: Bali United to win @2.70 – the bookmaker implies 37%, our ratings say 40%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (79%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Persepam Madura Utd 1–1 Bali United. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Persepam Madura Utd37%fair 2.71 · @2.25
Draw23%fair 4.34 · @3.50
Bali United40%fair 2.49 · @2.70
3.14Expected goals
1.48Persepam Madura Utd xG
1.66Bali United xG
64%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
1–29%
2–18%
0–17%
2–27%
1–06%
From our goals model: Persepam Madura Utd 1.5 – 1.7 Bali United expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Bali United to win✗
40%
2.49
2.70 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
64%
1.56
1.55
Draw no bet
Bali United (draw no bet)✗
52%
1.92
–
Asian handicap
Persepam Madura Utd +1 (Asian handicap)✓
73%
1.38
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.26
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.73
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
64%
1.56
1.40
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
79%
1.26
–
First team to score
Bali United to score first✗
51%
1.97
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
39%
2.59
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Bali United / FT Bali United✗
25%
3.95
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.32
–
Recent results
Persepam Madura Utd – last 6
WLWWLL
29 Apr
@ Semen Padang
1–0
W
25 Apr
vs Dewa United
1–2
L
17 Apr
@ Persebaya Surabaya
2–1
W
11 Apr
vs Persik Kediri
2–1
W
5 Apr
vs Pusamania Borneo
1–3
L
3 Mar
vs Malut United
1–2
L
1.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Bali United – last 6
WWWLWL
27 Apr
vs PSM Makassar
2–0
W
23 Apr
@ Persita
1–0
W
19 Apr
vs Malut United
4–1
W
12 Apr
@ Persib Bandung
2–3
L
6 Apr
vs PSBS Biak Numfor
6–1
W
12 Mar
@ Persis Solo
0–3
L
2.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Persepam Madura Utd and Bali United.
What is the prediction for Persepam Madura Utd vs Bali United?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Persepam Madura Utd vs Bali United?
On our numbers Persepam Madura Utd have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Bali United 40%.
How many goals will there be in Persepam Madura Utd vs Bali United?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Persepam Madura Utd vs Bali United?
Our predicted score is Persepam Madura Utd 1–1 Bali United, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Persepam Madura Utd vs Bali United?
Persepam Madura Utd vs Bali United (Liga 1) kicks off on Tuesday 5 May 2026 at 09:30 (West Africa Time) at Gelora Ratu Pamelingan Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
