Double chancePersebaya Surabaya or draw ✓86% · @1.02
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @1.83
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 10.73
Semen Padang vs Persebaya Surabaya: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Persebaya Surabaya travel to face Semen Padang on Friday 15 May in the Liga 1, with Stadion GOR Haji Agus Salim the venue – the ball rolls at 09:30 WAT.
Current form
Semen Padang, last 5: LLLLL Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to Persik Kediri, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 4 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.2 goals a game.
Persebaya Surabaya, last 5: DWWWL Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Persis Solo, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is no problem – 2.0 a game lately. Defensively they have kept 5 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Persebaya Surabaya, collecting 2.2 points per game to 0.0 for Semen Padang.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Semen Padang 0.7 xG, Persebaya Surabaya 1.7 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 52%, GG 52%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Semen Padang 14%, draw 25%, Persebaya Surabaya 62%.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 1.83.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (69%, odds 1.53 – longer than our fair 1.45, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Semen Padang 0–1 Persebaya Surabaya. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Semen Padang14%fair 7.32 · @8.25
Draw25%fair 4.05 · @4.80
Persebaya Surabaya62%fair 1.62 · @1.30
2.44Expected goals
0.74Semen Padang xG
1.70Persebaya Surabaya xG
52%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–115%
0–213%
1–111%
1–29%
0–09%
0–37%
From our goals model: Semen Padang 0.7 – 1.7 Persebaya Surabaya expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Persebaya Surabaya to win✓
62%
1.62
1.30
Double chance
Persebaya Surabaya or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.02
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.92
1.83
Draw no bet
Persebaya Surabaya (draw no bet)✓
82%
1.22
–
Asian handicap
Persebaya Surabaya -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
60%
1.66
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
1.17
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.92
1.55
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
69%
1.45
1.53 ▲
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
90%
1.11
–
First team to score
Persebaya Surabaya to score first✓
64%
1.57
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.32
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Persebaya Surabaya / FT Persebaya Surabaya✓
37%
2.68
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
10.73
–
Recent results
Semen Padang – last 6
LLLLLL
8 May
vs Persik Kediri
0–3
L
3 May
@ Dewa United
0–1
L
29 Apr
vs Persepam Madura Utd
0–1
L
20 Apr
vs Persijap
0–2
L
12 Apr
@ Persis Solo
1–2
L
5 Apr
vs Persib Bandung
0–2
L
0.2Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Persebaya Surabaya – last 6
DWWWLW
9 May
@ Persis Solo
0–0
D
2 May
vs PSBS Biak Numfor
4–0
W
28 Apr
@ Arema FC
4–0
W
23 Apr
@ Malut United
2–0
W
17 Apr
vs Persepam Madura Utd
1–2
L
4 Apr
vs Persita
1–0
W
2.0Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Semen Padang and Persebaya Surabaya.
What is the prediction for Semen Padang vs Persebaya Surabaya?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win Semen Padang vs Persebaya Surabaya?
On our numbers Semen Padang have a 14% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Persebaya Surabaya 62%.
How many goals will there be in Semen Padang vs Persebaya Surabaya?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Semen Padang vs Persebaya Surabaya?
Our predicted score is Semen Padang 0–1 Persebaya Surabaya, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Semen Padang vs Persebaya Surabaya?
Semen Padang vs Persebaya Surabaya (Liga 1) kicks off on Friday 15 May 2026 at 09:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadion GOR Haji Agus Salim.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
