Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.80 – our chance 61% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultPolonia Środa to win ✓69% · @1.30
Double chancePolonia Środa or draw ✓87% · @1.06
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓61% · @1.80
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓70% · fair 1.42
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.72
Polonia Środa vs Tłuchowia: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
18:00 WAT, Friday 8 May: Polonia Środa v Tłuchowia in the III Liga Group 2, played at Stadion 700-lecia Środy Wielkopolskiej.
Current form
Polonia Środa, last 5: LLDWD Their latest outing: 2–3 defeat to Wda Świecie, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Tłuchowia, last 5: DLLWL Their latest outing: 3–3 draw with Pogoń Szczecin II, at home. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.6 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Polonia Środa 2.5 xG, Tłuchowia 1.1 xG – a total near 3.6. That is an open game on paper: 70% for three or more goals, 61% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Polonia Środa 69%, draw 18%, Tłuchowia 13%.
GG/NG: GG (61%) at 1.80.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.80 – the bookmaker implies 56%, our ratings say 61%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Polonia Środa to win (69%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Polonia Środa 2–1 Tłuchowia. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Polonia Środa69%fair 1.46 · @1.30
Draw18%fair 5.46 · @5.00
Tłuchowia13%fair 7.59 · @6.50
3.63Expected goals
2.53Polonia Środa xG
1.10Tłuchowia xG
61%Both score
70%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–19%
2–08%
3–18%
1–17%
3–07%
1–07%
From our goals model: Polonia Środa 2.5 – 1.1 Tłuchowia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Polonia Środa to win✓
69%
1.46
1.30
Double chance
Polonia Środa or draw✓
87%
1.15
1.06
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
61%
1.64
1.80 ▲
Draw no bet
Polonia Środa (draw no bet)✓
84%
1.19
–
Asian handicap
Polonia Środa -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
68%
1.46
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
88%
1.14
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
70%
1.42
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
51%
1.97
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
–
First team to score
Polonia Środa to score first✗
68%
1.47
–
Half-time result
Polonia Środa ahead at half-time✗
51%
1.95
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Polonia Środa / FT Polonia Środa✗
46%
2.18
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.72
–
Recent results
Polonia Środa – last 6
LLDWDL
1 May
@ Wda Świecie
2–3
L
10 Apr
vs Unia Swarzędz
0–1
L
4 Apr
@ Lipno Stęszew
1–1
D
1 Apr
vs Flota Świnoujście
6–2
W
21 Mar
@ Lech Poznań II
1–1
D
13 Mar
vs Luzino
1–2
L
1.8Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
83%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Tłuchowia – last 5
DLLWL
1 May
vs Pogoń Szczecin II
3–3
D
19 Apr
@ Victoria Września
0–2
L
1 Apr
vs Zawisza Bydgoszcz
0–1
L
27 Mar
vs Lipno Stęszew
3–1
W
28 Feb
@ Flota Świnoujście
0–1
L
1.2Scored / game
1.6Conceded / game
40%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Polonia Środa and Tłuchowia.
What is the prediction for Polonia Środa vs Tłuchowia?
Our pick is Polonia Środa to win with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Polonia Środa vs Tłuchowia?
On our numbers Polonia Środa have a 69% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Tłuchowia 13%.
How many goals will there be in Polonia Środa vs Tłuchowia?
We expect about 3.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 70% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Polonia Środa vs Tłuchowia?
Our predicted score is Polonia Środa 2–1 Tłuchowia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.6 goals in total.
When is Polonia Środa vs Tłuchowia?
Polonia Środa vs Tłuchowia (III Liga Group 2) kicks off on Friday 8 May 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadion 700-lecia Środy Wielkopolskiej.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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