Value bet: Sparta Katowice to win @ 4.15 – our chance 31% vs 24% implied by the price (edge +29%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultGórnik Polkowice to win ✗47% · @1.61
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.16
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗61% · @1.80
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 11.96
Górnik Polkowice vs Sparta Katowice: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Sparta Katowice travel to face Górnik Polkowice on Friday 13 March in the III Liga Group 3, with Stadion Górnik the venue – the ball rolls at 15:30 WAT. In the table, Górnik Polkowice are 9th, upper half, on 22 points after 16 matches; Sparta Katowice are 2nd (among the top four) with 36. There are 14 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Górnik Polkowice, last 3: WWW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Zagłębie Lubin II, away. The attack is flying at 2.7 goals per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Górnik Polkowice 1.4 xG, Sparta Katowice 1.4 xG – a total near 2.9. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 55%, GG 61%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Górnik Polkowice 47%, draw 22%, Sparta Katowice 31%.
GG/NG: GG (61%) at 1.80.
Price worth noting: Sparta Katowice to win @4.15 – the bookmaker implies 24%, our ratings say 31%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (77%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Górnik Polkowice 1–1 Sparta Katowice. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Górnik Polkowice47%fair 2.13 · @1.61
Draw22%fair 4.54 · @4.55
Sparta Katowice31%fair 3.22 · @4.15
2.87Expected goals
1.43Górnik Polkowice xG
1.44Sparta Katowice xG
61%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–28%
2–18%
0–18%
1–08%
2–26%
From our goals model: Górnik Polkowice 1.4 – 1.4 Sparta Katowice expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Górnik Polkowice
Sparta Katowice
Attack vs III Liga Group 3 average
+19%
+20%
Goals conceded vs average
+16%
-41%
Our expected goals here
1.19
1.75
Our own ratings from every III Liga Group 3 result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Górnik Polkowice to win✗
47%
2.13
1.61
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.16
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
61%
1.65
1.80 ▲
Draw no bet
Górnik Polkowice (draw no bet)✗
60%
1.66
–
Asian handicap
Górnik Polkowice +0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
62%
1.60
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.83
1.69
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
67%
1.49
1.39
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
82%
1.21
1.14
First team to score
Sparta Katowice to score first✓
47%
2.12
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
41%
2.45
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sparta Katowice / FT Sparta Katowice✗
22%
4.55
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
11.96
–
Recent results
Górnik Polkowice – last 3
WWW
8 Mar
@ Zagłębie Lubin II
2–0
W
27 Feb
vs Starowice Dolne
2–0
W
14 Feb
vs Polonia Nysa
4–1
W
2.7Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Sparta Katowice – last 1
D
7 Mar
vs Miedź Legnica II
2–2
D
2.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Górnik Polkowice and Sparta Katowice.
What is the prediction for Górnik Polkowice vs Sparta Katowice?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Górnik Polkowice vs Sparta Katowice?
On our numbers Górnik Polkowice have a 47% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Sparta Katowice 31%.
How many goals will there be in Górnik Polkowice vs Sparta Katowice?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Górnik Polkowice vs Sparta Katowice?
Our predicted score is Górnik Polkowice 1–1 Sparta Katowice, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Górnik Polkowice vs Sparta Katowice?
Górnik Polkowice vs Sparta Katowice (III Liga Group 3) kicks off on Friday 13 March 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Górnik.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Górnik Zabrze II1
SKRA Częstochowa2