Very strong pick · fair odds 1.21 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.05 – our chance 53% vs 49% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultMachico to win ✓55% · @1.85
Double chanceMachico or draw ✓82% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @2.05
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓82% · fair 1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.60
Machico vs Vilaverdense: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Vilaverdense travel to face Machico on Wednesday 8 April in the Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group A, with Estádio Municipal de Machico the venue – the ball rolls at 15:00 WAT.
Current form
Machico, last 5: LWWWL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Camacha, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Vilaverdense, last 5: LWLLD Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Brito, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Momentum favours Machico, collecting 1.7 points per game to 0.7 for Vilaverdense.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Machico 1.5 xG, Vilaverdense 0.7 xG – a total near 2.2. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 63%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Machico 55%, draw 27%, Vilaverdense 18%.
Lower-risk option: Machico or draw (82%) at 1.20.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 2.05.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.05 – the bookmaker implies 49%, our ratings say 53%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Machico or draw (82%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Machico 1–0 Vilaverdense. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Machico55%fair 1.82 · @1.85
Draw27%fair 3.67 · @2.90
Vilaverdense18%fair 5.65 · @4.00
2.17Expected goals
1.49Machico xG
0.68Vilaverdense xG
53%Both score
37%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–017%
2–013%
1–112%
0–011%
2–19%
0–18%
From our goals model: Machico 1.5 – 0.7 Vilaverdense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Machico to win✓
55%
1.82
1.85
Double chance
Machico or draw✓
82%
1.21
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.90
2.05 ▲
Draw no bet
Machico (draw no bet)✓
76%
1.32
–
Asian handicap
Vilaverdense +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
70%
1.42
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
64%
1.57
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
82%
1.21
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
93%
1.07
–
First team to score
Machico to score first✓
61%
1.64
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
46%
2.16
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Machico / FT Machico✗
34%
2.91
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.60
–
Recent results
Machico – last 6
LWWWLD
22 Mar
@ Camacha
1–2
L
15 Mar
vs Bragança
2–0
W
8 Mar
vs Brito
1–0
W
1 Mar
@ AR São Martinho
2–1
W
22 Feb
vs Vianense
2–3
L
15 Feb
@ Tirsense
2–2
D
1.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Vilaverdense – last 6
LWLLDL
22 Mar
vs Brito
0–2
L
15 Mar
@ AR São Martinho
1–0
W
8 Mar
vs Vianense
0–2
L
1 Mar
@ Tirsense
0–1
L
22 Feb
vs Chaves II
1–1
D
15 Feb
@ Os Limianos
1–4
L
0.5Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Machico and Vilaverdense.
What is the prediction for Machico vs Vilaverdense?
Our pick is Machico or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Machico vs Vilaverdense?
On our numbers Machico have a 55% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Vilaverdense 18%.
How many goals will there be in Machico vs Vilaverdense?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 37% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Machico vs Vilaverdense?
Our predicted score is Machico 1–0 Vilaverdense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Machico vs Vilaverdense?
Machico vs Vilaverdense (Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group A) kicks off on Wednesday 8 April 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Municipal de Machico.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
