Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.44 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.44Odds
Picks by market
ResultMortágua to win ✗47% · @1.91
Double chanceMortágua or draw ✗75% · fair 1.34
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓57% · fair 1.76
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓84% · fair 1.19
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 6.90
Mortágua vs Fátima: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 8 March the Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group C brings Mortágua against Fátima at Campo da Gandarada. Kick-off: 16:00 WAT. In the table, Mortágua are 4th, among the top four, on 15 points after 8 matches; Fátima are 7th (upper half) with 11.
Current form
Mortágua, last 3: LWW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Samora Correir, away. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.7 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Mortágua 1.2 xG, Fátima 0.9 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 65% and a clean sheet for one side more likely than not.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Mortágua 47%, draw 28%, Fátima 25%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (65%, odds 1.44). Most likely score in line with that pick: Mortágua 1–0 Fátima. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Mortágua47%fair 2.14 · @1.91
Draw28%fair 3.59 · @3.00
Fátima25%fair 3.95 · @3.90
2.09Expected goals
1.17Mortágua xG
0.92Fátima xG
43%Both score
35%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
1–113%
0–012%
0–111%
2–09%
2–18%
From our goals model: Mortágua 1.2 – 0.9 Fátima expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Mortágua to win✗
47%
2.14
1.91
Double chance
Mortágua or draw✗
75%
1.34
–
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
57%
1.76
–
Draw no bet
Mortágua (draw no bet)✗
65%
1.54
–
Asian handicap
Fátima +1 (Asian handicap)✓
77%
1.31
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
62%
1.62
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
65%
1.54
1.44
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
94%
1.07
–
First team to score
Mortágua to score first✗
49%
2.03
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
49%
2.06
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Mortágua / FT Mortágua✗
24%
4.21
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
6.90
–
Recent results
Mortágua – last 3
LWW
1 Mar
@ Samora Correir
0–1
L
22 Feb
vs Peniche
2–1
W
15 Feb
@ Oliveira Hospital
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Fátima – last 2
DD
1 Mar
vs Lajense
1–1
D
22 Feb
vs Samora Correir
2–2
D
1.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
100%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mortágua and Fátima.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Mortágua vs Fátima?
On our numbers Mortágua have a 47% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Fátima 25%.
How many goals will there be in Mortágua vs Fátima?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 35% likely and both teams score 43% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mortágua vs Fátima?
Our predicted score is Mortágua 1–0 Fátima, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Mortágua vs Fátima?
Mortágua vs Fátima (Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group C) kicks off on Sunday 8 March 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Campo da Gandarada.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Lusitânia0
Eléctrico4
Marinhense1