Value bet: Moncarapachense to win @ 3.40 – our chance 33% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultLagoa to win ✓41% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.28
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗52% · fair 1.94
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 9.45
Lagoa vs Moncarapachense: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 22 February the Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group D brings Lagoa against Moncarapachense at Estadio Capitao Josino da Costa. Kick-off: 16:00 WAT.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Lagoa 1.3 xG, Moncarapachense 1.2 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 44%, GG 48%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Lagoa 41%, draw 26%, Moncarapachense 33%.
Price worth noting: Moncarapachense to win @3.40 – the bookmaker implies 29%, our ratings say 33%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (56%, odds 1.62). Most likely score in line with that pick: Lagoa 1–1 Moncarapachense. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Lagoa41%fair 2.45 · @2.00
Draw26%fair 3.81 · @3.10
Moncarapachense33%fair 3.04 · @3.40
2.49Expected goals
1.27Lagoa xG
1.21Moncarapachense xG
48%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–011%
0–110%
0–08%
2–18%
1–28%
From our goals model: Lagoa 1.3 – 1.2 Moncarapachense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lagoa to win✓
41%
2.45
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.36
1.28
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
52%
1.94
–
Draw no bet
Lagoa (draw no bet)✓
55%
1.80
–
Asian handicap
Moncarapachense +0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.77
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
89%
1.12
–
First team to score
Lagoa to score first
47%
2.13
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.26
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lagoa / FT Lagoa✓
22%
4.60
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
9.45
–
Recent results
Lagoa – last 1
L
15 Feb
@ Juventude Évora
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Moncarapachense – last 1
D
15 Feb
vs Comércio Indústria
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lagoa and Moncarapachense.
What is the prediction for Lagoa vs Moncarapachense?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 56% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win Lagoa vs Moncarapachense?
On our numbers Lagoa have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Moncarapachense 33%.
How many goals will there be in Lagoa vs Moncarapachense?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lagoa vs Moncarapachense?
Our predicted score is Lagoa 1–1 Moncarapachense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Lagoa vs Moncarapachense?
Lagoa vs Moncarapachense (Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group D) kicks off on Sunday 22 February 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Capitao Josino da Costa.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
