Value bet: Tre Penne to win @ 3.10 – our chance 37% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultTre Penne to win ✓37% · @3.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓73% · @1.30
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓54% · fair 1.84
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗11% · fair 8.72
Tre Fiori vs Tre Penne: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Tre Fiori welcome Tre Penne to Campo Sportivo di Fiorentino Federico Crescentini for a Campionato fixture on Sunday 22 February (15:00 WAT). In the table, Tre Fiori are 4th, among the top four, on 17 points after 8 matches; Tre Penne are 2nd (among the top four) with 20. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Tre Fiori 1.1 xG, Tre Penne 1.3 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 42%, GG 46%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Tre Fiori 36%, draw 27%, Tre Penne 37%.
Price worth noting: Tre Penne to win @3.10 – the bookmaker implies 32%, our ratings say 37%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (58%, odds 1.57). Most likely score in line with that pick: Tre Fiori 1–1 Tre Penne. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Tre Fiori36%fair 2.76 · @2.20
Draw27%fair 3.71 · @3.00
Tre Penne37%fair 2.72 · @3.10
2.45Expected goals
1.12Tre Fiori xG
1.33Tre Penne xG
46%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–111%
1–010%
0–09%
1–29%
0–28%
From our goals model: Tre Fiori 1.1 – 1.3 Tre Penne expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Tre Penne to win✓
37%
2.72
3.10 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
73%
1.37
1.30
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
54%
1.84
–
Draw no bet
Tre Penne (draw no bet)✓
50%
1.99
–
Asian handicap
Tre Fiori +1 (Asian handicap)✗
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.42
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.73
1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
–
First team to score
Tre Penne to score first✓
49%
2.02
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.24
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Tre Penne / FT Tre Penne✓
24%
4.17
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
11%
8.72
–
Recent results
Tre Fiori – last 1
D
15 Feb
@ Folgore
2–2
D
2.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Tre Penne – last 1
D
15 Feb
vs Cosmos
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Tre Fiori and Tre Penne.
What is the prediction for Tre Fiori vs Tre Penne?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 58% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win Tre Fiori vs Tre Penne?
On our numbers Tre Fiori have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Tre Penne 37%.
How many goals will there be in Tre Fiori vs Tre Penne?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Tre Fiori vs Tre Penne?
Our predicted score is Tre Fiori 1–1 Tre Penne, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Tre Fiori vs Tre Penne?
Tre Fiori vs Tre Penne (Campionato) kicks off on Sunday 22 February 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Campo Sportivo di Fiorentino Federico Crescentini.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
