El Mokawloon 16%Draw 26%Al Ahly 57%Expected goals 0.75 – 1.45
79%
Betarazi pick
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.22 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.30 – our chance 51% vs 43% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultAl Ahly to win ✓57% · @1.44
Double chanceAl Ahly or draw ✓84% · @1.03
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @2.30
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗79% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.44
El Mokawloon vs Al Ahly: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Thursday 5 March the Premier League brings El Mokawloon against Al Ahly at Arab Contractors Stadium. Kick-off: 20:30 WAT. In the table, El Mokawloon are 7th, upper half, on 11 points after 8 matches; Al Ahly are 2nd (among the top four) with 20.
Current form
Al Ahly, last 3: WWD Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Smouha SC, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give El Mokawloon 0.8 xG, Al Ahly 1.4 xG – a total near 2.2. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 41%, GG 51%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – El Mokawloon 16%, draw 26%, Al Ahly 57%.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 2.30.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.30 – the bookmaker implies 43%, our ratings say 51%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (79%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: El Mokawloon 0–1 Al Ahly. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
El Mokawloon16%fair 6.06 · @7.50
Draw26%fair 3.79 · @3.80
Al Ahly57%fair 1.75 · @1.44
2.20Expected goals
0.75El Mokawloon xG
1.45Al Ahly xG
51%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–116%
1–112%
0–212%
0–011%
1–29%
1–08%
From our goals model: El Mokawloon 0.8 – 1.4 Al Ahly expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Al Ahly to win✓
57%
1.75
1.44
Double chance
Al Ahly or draw✓
84%
1.20
1.03
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.96
2.30 ▲
Draw no bet
Al Ahly (draw no bet)✓
78%
1.29
–
Asian handicap
El Mokawloon +1 (Asian handicap)✗
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
59%
1.68
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
79%
1.26
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
93%
1.08
–
First team to score
Al Ahly to score first✓
59%
1.71
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.15
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Al Ahly / FT Al Ahly✓
32%
3.12
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.44
–
Recent results
El Mokawloon – last 2
DD
23 Feb
@ El Gouna FC
1–1
D
19 Feb
vs AL Masry
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Al Ahly – last 3
WWD
23 Feb
@ Smouha SC
1–0
W
19 Feb
vs El Gouna FC
1–0
W
15 Feb
vs FAR Rabat
0–0
D
0.7Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between El Mokawloon and Al Ahly.
What is the prediction for El Mokawloon vs Al Ahly?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win El Mokawloon vs Al Ahly?
On our numbers El Mokawloon have a 16% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Al Ahly 57%.
How many goals will there be in El Mokawloon vs Al Ahly?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for El Mokawloon vs Al Ahly?
Our predicted score is El Mokawloon 0–1 Al Ahly, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is El Mokawloon vs Al Ahly?
El Mokawloon vs Al Ahly (Premier League) kicks off on Thursday 5 March 2026 at 20:30 (West Africa Time) at Arab Contractors Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Haras El Hodood1