Alvechurch v Stamford Prediction & Expected Goals (17 Mar) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultAlvechurch to win ✓65% · @1.85

Double chanceAlvechurch or draw ✓84% · @1.22

Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓58% · fair 1.74

GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78% · fair 1.28

Correct scoreCorrect score 3–0 ✗10% · fair 9.95

Alvechurch vs Stamford: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

20:45 WAT, Tuesday 17 March: Alvechurch v Stamford in the Non League Premier Southern Central, played at Lye Meadow. In the table, Alvechurch are 6th, upper half, on 29 points after 15 matches; Stamford are 22nd (in the drop zone) with 5. There are 24 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.

Current form

Alvechurch, last 5: WLLLW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Kettering Town, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. 2.0 goals per outing makes them dangerous.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Alvechurch 2.2 xG, Stamford 0.7 xG – a total near 2.9. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 53%, GG 42%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Alvechurch 65%, draw 19%, Stamford 16%.
Lower-risk option: Alvechurch or draw (84%) at 1.22.
Price worth noting: Alvechurch to win @1.85 – the bookmaker implies 54%, our ratings say 65%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Alvechurch or draw (84%, odds 1.22 – longer than our fair 1.19, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Alvechurch 2–0 Stamford. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Alvechurch65%fair 1.53 · @1.85

Draw19%fair 5.31 · @3.40

Stamford16%fair 6.33 · @3.60

2.89Expected goals

2.21Alvechurch xG

0.68Stamford xG

42%Both score

53%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

2–014%

1–012%

3–010%

2–19%

1–18%

3–17%

From our goals model: Alvechurch 2.2 – 0.7 Stamford expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Alvechurch to win ✓	65%	1.53	1.85 ▲
Double chance	Alvechurch or draw ✓	84%	1.19	1.22
Both teams to score	Not both teams to score ✓	58%	1.74	–
Draw no bet	Alvechurch (draw no bet) ✓	81%	1.24	–
Asian handicap	Alvechurch -1 (Asian handicap) ✓	64%	1.57	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	78%	1.28	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals ✗	53%	1.90	1.90
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	67%	1.49	–
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	83%	1.20	–
First team to score	Alvechurch to score first ✓	72%	1.38	–
Half-time result	Alvechurch ahead at half-time ✗	52%	1.92	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Alvechurch / FT Alvechurch ✗	48%	2.07	–
Correct score	Correct score 3–0 ✗	10%	9.95	–

Alvechurch – last 5

WLLLW

10 Mar	@ Kettering Town	2–0	W
3 Mar	vs Stourbridge	1–2	L
24 Feb	vs Real Bedford	3–4	L
21 Feb	vs Redditch United	0–1	L
17 Feb	@ Bromsgrove Sporting	4–1	W

2.0Scored / game

1.6Conceded / game

60%Both scored

60%Over 2.5

Stamford – last 1

21 Feb

@ Barwell

1–2

1.0Scored / game

2.0Conceded / game

100%Both scored

100%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Real Bedford	18	13	2	3	+24	41
2	Bromsgrove Sporting	16	11	4	1	+16	37
3	Bury Town	18	11	3	4	+5	36
4	Kettering Town	17	9	4	4	+12	31
5	Peterborough Sports	17	8	6	3	+7	30
6	Alvechurch	15	8	5	2	+15	29
7	Anstey Nomads	16	8	5	3	+9	29
8	Needham Market	16	8	4	4	+12	28
9	Rushall Olympic	18	9	1	8	+4	28
10	Halesowen Town	15	7	3	5	0	24
11	Stourbridge	16	6	4	6	-2	22
12	Stratford Town	17	5	7	5	-4	22
13	Racing Club Warwick	17	5	5	7	0	20
14	Redditch United	15	4	6	5	0	18
15	Worcester City	14	4	4	6	-1	16
16	Hitchin Town	16	4	4	8	-4	16
17	Leiston	15	4	3	8	-7	15
18	Bishop's Stortford	17	4	2	11	-11	14
19	Banbury United	17	3	5	9	-12	14
20	Leamington	17	3	4	10	-9	13
21	Leighton Town	15	1	3	11	-19	6
22	Stamford	16	1	2	13	-35	5

Team

Pts

+24

+16

+12

+15

+12

-2

-4

-1

-4

-7

-11

-12

-9

-19

-35

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Alvechurch vs Stamford?

Our pick is Alvechurch or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.

Who will win Alvechurch vs Stamford?

On our numbers Alvechurch have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Stamford 16%.

How many goals will there be in Alvechurch vs Stamford?

We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 42% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Alvechurch vs Stamford?

Our predicted score is Alvechurch 2–0 Stamford, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.

When is Alvechurch vs Stamford?

Alvechurch vs Stamford (Non League Premier Southern Central) kicks off on Tuesday 17 March 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at Lye Meadow.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Alvechurch v Stamford: numbers & prediction