Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.35 – our chance 51% vs 43% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultMamelodi Sundowns to win ✗61% · @1.50
Double chanceMamelodi Sundowns or draw ✓84% · @1.09
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @2.35
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.59
Mamelodi Sundowns vs Kaizer Chiefs: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Kaizer Chiefs travel to face Mamelodi Sundowns on Wednesday 6 May in the Premier Soccer League, with Loftus Versfeld Stadium the venue – the ball rolls at 18:30 WAT. In the table, Mamelodi Sundowns are 1st, leading the league, on 26 points after 10 matches; Kaizer Chiefs are 5th (upper half) with 14. There are 12 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Mamelodi Sundowns, last 5: WWDWW Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Polokwane City, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Kaizer Chiefs, last 5: LWWWL Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Siwelele, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 2 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Mamelodi Sundowns, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.5 for Kaizer Chiefs.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Mamelodi Sundowns 1.7 xG, Kaizer Chiefs 0.8 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 51%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Mamelodi Sundowns 61%, draw 22%, Kaizer Chiefs 16%.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 2.35.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.35 – the bookmaker implies 43%, our ratings say 51%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (77%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Mamelodi Sundowns 1–0 Kaizer Chiefs. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Mamelodi Sundowns61%fair 1.63 · @1.50
Draw22%fair 4.46 · @3.80
Kaizer Chiefs16%fair 6.12 · @7.30
2.47Expected goals
1.68Mamelodi Sundowns xG
0.79Kaizer Chiefs xG
51%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
2–012%
1–111%
2–19%
0–08%
3–07%
From our goals model: Mamelodi Sundowns 1.7 – 0.8 Kaizer Chiefs expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Mamelodi Sundowns to win✗
61%
1.63
1.50
Double chance
Mamelodi Sundowns or draw✓
84%
1.20
1.09
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.97
2.35 ▲
Draw no bet
Mamelodi Sundowns (draw no bet)
79%
1.27
–
Asian handicap
Kaizer Chiefs +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
67%
1.48
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.46
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.75
1.60
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.29
1.20
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
89%
1.12
1.06
First team to score
Mamelodi Sundowns to score first✗
62%
1.61
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.33
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Mamelodi Sundowns / FT Mamelodi Sundowns✗
36%
2.77
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.59
–
Recent results
Mamelodi Sundowns – last 6
WWDWWL
3 May
vs Polokwane City
3–0
W
29 Apr
@ Polokwane City
1–0
W
22 Apr
vs Stellenbosch
1–1
D
7 Apr
@ Durban City
1–0
W
3 Apr
vs Chippa United
4–1
W
22 Mar
@ Stade Malien Bamako
0–2
L
1.7Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Kaizer Chiefs – last 6
LWWWLL
29 Apr
@ Siwelele
0–2
L
15 Apr
@ Magesi
4–1
W
6 Apr
@ Orbit College
3–1
W
15 Mar
vs Durban City
1–0
W
3 Mar
@ Richards Bay
0–1
L
24 Feb
vs Stellenbosch
1–2
L
1.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mamelodi Sundowns and Kaizer Chiefs.
What is the prediction for Mamelodi Sundowns vs Kaizer Chiefs?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Mamelodi Sundowns vs Kaizer Chiefs?
On our numbers Mamelodi Sundowns have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Kaizer Chiefs 16%.
How many goals will there be in Mamelodi Sundowns vs Kaizer Chiefs?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mamelodi Sundowns vs Kaizer Chiefs?
Our predicted score is Mamelodi Sundowns 1–0 Kaizer Chiefs, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Mamelodi Sundowns vs Kaizer Chiefs?
Mamelodi Sundowns vs Kaizer Chiefs (Premier Soccer League) kicks off on Wednesday 6 May 2026 at 18:30 (West Africa Time) at Loftus Versfeld Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
